There are some huge matchups in the Big Ten and the Big 12 this weekend.
First, the “Big Noon Saturday” crew and I will be on the call for No. 2 Indiana at Penn State. The Hoosiers are looking to continue their bid toward an undefeated season and a Big Ten title, while the Nittany Lions have another tough test as they try to build some momentum at the end of the season.
“Big Noon Kickoff,” meanwhile, will be in Iowa City for a compelling matchup between No. 9 Oregon and No. 20 Iowa that could play a role in whether the Big Ten gets four teams in the College Football Playoff this season.
That’s all before mentioning a top-10 matchup in the Big 12, where No. 8 Texas Tech hosts undefeated No. 7 BYU in a possible preview of the conference title game.
Let’s dive into my preview and picks for each of the biggest games in college football this weekend.
This Indiana team has been so good over the course of this season. The Hoosiers are better than they were a year ago, and they’re good almost everywhere on that team. They’re going to have to battle two things, though: injuries and complacency. I don’t think complacency is going to be a factor after some of the conversations I’ve had with head coach Curt Cignetti over the past couple of years. This team is going to be so focused on the day-to-day process.
Penn State, meanwhile, is reeling. This is the Nittany Lions’ first home game since former head coach James Franklin was fired on Oct. 12. I’m hoping the Penn State fan base is still supportive of this team and kids who, in some cases, have been there three, four or five years and are just fighting for a bowl game.
Circling back to Indiana, that win over Maryland was just so dominant, and this team has been dominant in all its games this year except for the win at Iowa. The Hoosiers are good everywhere as well, with a Heisman contender at quarterback in Fernando Mendoza. They run the ball as well as anyone in the country, ranking second in rushing among Power 4 teams. They have five 300-yard rushing games already this season. The Hoosiers are committed to running the rock, which allows them to protect their top-10 defense in the country. They’re so fundamentally sound to the point that whenever I call one of their games, coaches on the opposing team rave about it.
Will Indiana and Oregon win their Big Ten matchups? 👀
There are a couple of injury concerns for Indiana, though. Wide receiver Elijah Surratt, who’ll be in the running for the Biletnikoff Award, left the Maryland game early with a hamstring injury. Linebacker Aidan Fisher, who’s really the key cog for Indiana’s defense, is battling a knee injury and sat out last week. I was told that was more precautionary, however. Still, Indiana will absolutely need those two down the stretch to win the Big Ten and a national title.
For Penn State, it has obviously gone off the rails, but there were some bright spots against Ohio State last week after only trailing 17-14 going into halftime. The Nittany Lions ran the ball decently in the first half. I thought running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton did some great things, particularly when they got into space and along the edge. They need to lean into that heavily against Indiana, even though the Hoosiers are strong at defending the run. It would also help quarterback Ethan Grunkmeyer, who’ll face his third straight top-10 defense in his first three career starts. Penn State can’t make this a one-dimensional offense.
Still, the difficulty for Penn State will be to match the explosiveness of this Indiana team. In fact, I think Indiana has the fewest questions of any team in the country.
This is a dangerous game for Oregon. Not just because Iowa always plays well at home, but because the Hawkeyes have also gotten better as the season has progressed. Specifically, they’re getting better in the areas that they desperately needed to improve in, such as the offensive line. Iowa doesn’t throw the football almost at all and with zero efficiency, but it’s playing its brand of football nearly to the best of its ability. It’s going to run the football, play great defense, shrink the game and capitalize if you make one mistake.
I think the weather is going to be a factor in this game as well. Oregon isn’t foreign to rain, but the forecast calls for some cold rain that could turn into sleet by the game’s end. That’s something to watch for. Iowa feasts on turnovers and one bad throw by Ducks quarterback Dante Moore could turn into an interception that gives the Hawkeyes a short field. Maybe Iowa can take an early lead because of that, putting Oregon under duress. That’s how Iowa is going to have to score points as well, creating short fields by forcing turnovers or making strong special teams plays.
Moore is going to have to play very clean and get back to the version of himself we saw earlier this season. If he isn’t efficient and decisive, there will be a chance for Iowa to turn the ball over. Fortunately for Oregon, it does have a team that can play in this weather. The Ducks have a deep backfield, with running backs Jordon Davison and Noah Whittington combining for 424 rushing yards over the past two games.
Iowa can run the rock well too, though. Quarterback Mark Gronowski and Iowa’s offensive line have looked better in the ground game in recent weeks, and that might be one of Oregon’s few weaknesses.
Ultimately, give me the points, but Oregon finds a way to win.
Pick: Oregon 17, Iowa 13 (Iowa +6.5)
You can’t really have a bigger game in the Big 12 this season than this matchup. This environment in Lubbock should be one of the best environments we see in college football this season.
That leads to the question: Can BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier handle the environment? We saw him play OK at Arizona and much better at Iowa State, but this is different. Texas Tech is much better, particularly on defense, than either of those teams. The one thing I love about Bachmeier is that the dude just wins. He reminds me of former TCU quarterback Max Duggan — he’s tough, can run it and make good decisions. He’s 8-0 as a true freshman. The last player to do that was Trevor Lawrence.
Will BYU or Texas Tech win this top 10 matchup?
Still, Texas Tech’s defense is one of the best in the country. David Bailey leads the country in sacks while Texas Tech’s other starting edge rusher, Romello Height, has been outstanding. That’s not even mentioning linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who could win this year’s Butkus Award. He has been tremendous and a turnover machine, so the Red Raiders should give Bachmeier a strong test.
The good news for BYU is that running back LJ Martin should be back from injury on Saturday, but Texas Tech’s offense has a lot of answers, with fellow RBs Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams running the ball well. Quarterback Behren Morton is back, and that should be a potent passing game if he stays healthy. BYU’s leader in sacks, linebacker Jack Kelly, is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Ultimately, I think Texas Tech wins this game and covers a spread that some might think is a bit too big.
Pick: Texas Tech 34, BYU 21 (Texas Tech -10.5)
Can Texas A&M handle success? That’s one of my big questions about the Aggies, especially as they take on a Missouri team that can cause them some problems.
Missouri is going to be starting true freshman Matt Zollers at quarterback following Beau Pribula’s injury in the Vanderbilt loss. Zollers didn’t look bad against Vandy, and he has had a week to prepare for this game. Maybe he’ll have some true-freshman moments Saturday, but the key for Missouri will be to get back to where it had success early in the season. Running back Ahmad Hardy needs to get back to his September form. He was the nation’s leading rusher at one point, and if he can play like that Saturday, Missouri can attack one of Texas A&M’s few weaknesses. If you strip out Texas A&M’s sack numbers, it’s in the bottom 10 of the country in yards per carry allowed.
If Missouri can run the ball successfully, the game will shrink and that means fewer opportunities for Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed to shine. What doesn’t work in Missouri’s favor is that Texas A&M is as good as anyone on the road, scoring at least 40 points in all three of its away games this season. Two of those wins came at Notre Dame and LSU, so Texas A&M isn’t going to be worried about playing at Missouri this weekend.
If I’m Texas A&M, I’m continuing to lean on Reed offensively and loading the box defensively against a true freshman signal-caller. Force the game on the quarterback. I feel like we’ll know exactly how this game is going to go after Texas A&M’s first defensive series. If the Aggies can force long down-and-distance situations, they should win by a lot.
We don’t know how they’ll play Missouri just yet, and maybe the Tigers are able to get something going in the run game early. Still, I like Texas A&M here.
Pick: Texas A&M 28, Missouri 20 (Texas A&M -7.5)
Both teams are coming off a bye, which is good for Alabama after the four-game run it had of defeating ranked teams in September into October. For LSU, this is its first game after firing ex-head coach Brian Kelly.
LSU’s defense hasn’t looked anywhere near as good since it did at the start of the season following linebacker Whit Weeks’ injury. He’s still questionable for this game, and do we really trust LSU’s offense?
I get it, Alabama’s not perfect, but LSU … stinks. I don’t know how else to put it. That’s why Kelly was fired. I don’t think LSU is going to go on the road and suddenly stun Alabama. There’s no evidence of that happening.
There is evidence that Alabama is going to continue to play well. Quarterback Ty Simpson has been tremendous, and I can’t trust LSU at all.
Pick: Alabama 31, LSU 20 (Alabama -9.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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