A lot of you know me as the football guy when it comes to placing wagers. And yes, I played in the NFL and love the league and college football, but I enjoy the entire spectrum when it comes to sports.
Especially when it comes to playoff ball — or puck, in some cases.
Since we’re all watching the exciting action of the NBA and NHL Playoffs, I decided to do some research and give you spots that I like the most for Thursday’s games.
Let’s take a look.
Warriors @ Timberwolves
The Wolves lost to the Warriors in Game 1, becoming the fourth home team out of four to lose the first game of the series. However, unlike the Celtics, Cavs or Thunder losses, this game was never close after the first quarter.
The Wolves scored 31 first-half points and finished with 88 total. They shot 5-for-29 from 3, missing their first 19 attempts. They were -10 in rebounds and -7 in assists. The Warriors did all of this without injured superstar Steph Curry, who left the game in the second quarter with a hamstring injury. He is out for Game 2 and potentially beyond.
I’d imagine the Wolves are a proud team, and it’s a good opportunity to pounce — a team playing with motivation against a team happy to have won Game 1 without its star. I’m taking the Wolves first half and first-half Over point total. We can look at the Cavs in Game 2 for the blueprint: an awful shooting performance in Game 1, followed up by 61 first-half points and an 11-point halftime lead.
PICK: Wolves (first half -6.5) to lead by more than 6.5 points at halftime
Wolves (Over 52.5 first-half) to score more than 52.5 points in the first half
I have written before on my zigzag theory, where you wager on a player to go Over or Under to zag off the previous performance.
The best opportunity in this game is taking Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 points.
Edwards was near a goose egg for points in the first half of Game 1. He finished with 23 points on 9-for-22 shooting and just 1-for-5 from 3. He shot nearly 40% from 3 during the regular season and even just making three of them in Game 2 will help get Over this point total.
PICK: Anthony Edwards (Over 27.5) to score more than 27.5 points
Steph Curry out for at least a week — can Warriors win without him?
With Curry out of Game 2, that increases the time that Draymond Green will start the offense in the half court. It’s a spot he’s comfortable with, and he’s shown to be an outstanding passer and understand the flow of his offense. He will be in charge of making sure the offense is run smoothly, which should increase his ability to tally assists.
In the last three games, Green has seven, five and six assists, respectively. We know Green’s rebounding is a must with the Warriors’ smaller lineup. Green has at least 10 combined rebounds and assists in four of five playoff games, with him going over 12 in two of those.
This number was 10.5 for Game 1, and it saw Green get 14. So they’ve added a tax of one more stat. I’m still comfortable taking it.
PICK: Draymond Green (Over 11.5 REB/AST) to have more than 11.5 rebounds and assists combined
Hurricanes @ Capitals
Oilers @ Golden Knights
The NHL playoffs have been fantastic theater, with multiple teams winning in come-from-behind fashion in Game 7s to advance to the second round. It’s a tough sport to wager on, with the bounce of a puck determining goals, shots on goals, assists and game results. We’ve also seen some excellent goaltending in the first games of the second round. So the way I will play both of these games on Thursday is to take the home team off a loss to score first.
Entering Wednesday, the team off a loss has scored the first goal in 24 of 36 playoff games. And both the Capitals and Golden Knights scored first in their Game 1 losses. Both must start fast to get back into the win column.
PICK: Capitals (-110) to score first
Golden Knights (-130) to score first
Capitals/Golden Knights (+157) first-period goal
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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