College football Week 10 was the last chance for some teams to make a case that they deserved to be in the College Football Playoff.
I’m looking at you, Nebraska.
For other teams, it’s business as usual, as they keep steamrolling opponents.
Indiana, anyone?
With that in mind, let’s look at some of my best wagers for CFB Week 11.
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No. 2 Indiana @ Penn State
Indiana is a freight train and Penn State just happens to be on the track this weekend.
Four weeks ago, Indiana went to Oregon and defeated the Ducks 30-20. Since that game, the Hoosiers have won 38-13 against Michigan State, 56-6 against UCLA and 55-10 against Maryland.
Indiana is first in the country in points per drive on offense and third on defense. The Hoosiers play a style of football that’s consistent and repeatable, whether at home or on the road. When playing teams that are far worse than they are, it feels like Indiana becomes a Boa constrictor. It tends to start a tad slow and then squeeze the life out of its opponents as the game goes deeper.
Meanwhile, Penn State’s season has gone fubar.
The Nittany Lions have lost five games in a row, alongside a head coach and quarterback. Off a bye, they lost 38-14 to Ohio State in Week 10. They played hard for a half before the Buckeyes’ talent took over.
Penn State has nothing left to play for and the Nittany Lions will play this game at noon ET in front of a half empty Beaver Stadium. They’d need to force multiple turnovers and hope that Indiana has a down game to keep this one close.
I like Indiana to continue playing well while Penn State continues its downward trend.
PICK: Indiana (-14.5) to win by more than 14.5 points
Colorado @ West Virginia
This number is wildly high for the way West Virginia has played this season, but Colorado is a dead program right now.
The Mountaineers did just beat Houston after losing five straight games, with four of the five losses being by multiple touchdowns in ugly contests. Those games included ranked matchups with BYU and Utah and road losses at UCF and Kansas.
This game is at home for W.V. and the good vibes after an upset over Houston should carry over. It was good to see the Mountaineers offense play better against Houston because it has been poor this season. W.V. is 114th in yards per play while only being 91st on defense. I’m hopeful the win on Saturday has it playing with confidence.
In other news, Colorado has lost its last two games 53-7 and 52-17.
Reports are the Buffs demoted their offensive coordinator before the Arizona game (53-17 loss) and are starting true freshman quarterback JuJu Lewis this weekend. It’s his first start, and it’s on the road for a team that appears to have punted on this season.
PICK: West Virginia (-6) to win by more than 6 points
Nebraska @ UCLA
This is a fade Nebraska spot for me.
The Cornhuskers had everything in front of them last weekend. A ranked opponent at home with an outside shot at the Playoff if they continue to win.
Yes, at 10-2, Nebraska had a chance.
Nebraska started fast and was beating USC — but then it lost its quarterback. Backup TJ Lateef then went 5-of-7 with seven yards passing.
That is correct. Seven yards.
He added 18 yards rushing.
It’s fair to point out playing a backup quarterback without any preparation is a tough ask, but this was beyond tough — especially against a USC defense that is no juggernaut.
The Cornhuskers couldn’t lean on their run game because their offensive line is below average. This offense will get tested against UCLA’s defense.
For the Bruins, you have to throw out their pre-Deshaun Foster firing numbers. Since his firing, the Bruins allowed 17 to Northwestern, 13 to Michigan State and 17 to Maryland. They did allow tons of points to Penn State and Indiana, but Nebraska’s offense isn’t those teams with their backup QB.
UCLA’s offense had been improving since it switched offensive coordinators but hit a roadblock against Indiana. I think it’s fair to count that game as an outlier, and off a bye, I’d expect the Bruins’ staff to have something for Nebraska.
Nebraska’s defense cannot stop the run. The Cornhuskers are 83rd against the run and UCLA will be able to exploit that. I do believe UCLA can score on Nebraska.
Ultimately, I do not like this spot for the Cornhuskers. Their season effectively ended in that loss to USC. They are playing in an empty Rose Bowl against a hungry UCLA team off a bye.
PICK: UCLA (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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