Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Week 1 of college football was a blast — and to top it off, I made some money.
I had Miami +3 against Notre Dame, and guess what? The Hurricanes pulled off the win.
Aside from how excited I am for another round of games, I’m even more excited about betting them.
It’s still early in the season, but I have picked out a handful of my favorite bets for Week 2, including my weekly Bear Bytes.
Let’s dive in.
Last Week: 3-0
Season: 3-1
No. 11 Illinois @ Duke
Duke struggled in the first half last week with Elon and was tied at halftime before Darian Mensah was flawless in the second half. Mensah threw for almost 400 yards and really controlled the box score against the overmatched opponent.
Now, No. 11 comes to town as a short favorite, and I’m not sure if it should be. This is setting up as a classic pros vs. joes type game, where the public will likely side with the short-ranked favorite against an unranked team, and pro bettors/sharps will flock to the ‘dog. We’ll see if Illinois can continue the close game fortune it had last year and put up points and yards against Manny Diaz’s defense. I’m not so certain it will.
PICK: Duke (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech
A loss to Vanderbilt last year was foreshadowing a season of disappointments for the Hokies. Tech had its chances last week vs. South Carolina, but Kyron Drones was wildly inaccurate. The defense played well — allowed a TD on the scripted opening drive — but after that, allowed only a punt return TD and a long TD pass late in the game. The defense also sacked LaNorris Sellers four times and really held its own against the run.
I’m backing home field, revenge, and a regression to the mean for the Commodores’ 2024 close game success.
PICK: Virginia Tech (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
San Jose State @ No. 7 Texas
This has the makings of 42-7 Texas. San Jose State was sloppy in a bad loss to Central Michigan in the opener, while Texas will likely have a bit of a sluggish period at some point in this game, coming off the big emotional Week 1 loss at Ohio State. Expect a lot of running — especially late — and also expect Texas to try and develop a passing game, as the deep ball was non-existent in Columbus.
Get in. Get out. Stay healthy.
PICK: Under 52.5 points scored by both teams combined
Joel Klatt on Arch Manning, Julian Sayin: ‘Both of these teams just saw the best defense they’ll see all year’
Missouri State @ Marshall
Marshall is closer to an FCS roster than one might think after the purge from Charles Huff’s departure as head coach. Missouri State gave up 73 to USC, but this offense is nowhere near as dangerous as the Trojans. I expect the Bears to put forth a respectable effort.
PICK: Missouri State (+10) to lose by fewer than 10 points, or win outright
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON MONEYLINE
Last Week: 2-3, -0.05
Season: 2-3, -0.05
Duke +130
Virginia +120
Michigan +175
Kansas +205
Missouri State +300
Georgia State +360
BEAR BYTES
Seven top-25 teams face FCS opponents this week, and nine are favored by greater than four TDs. Only one game features two ranked opponents — No. 15 Michigan at No. 18 Oklahoma.
Bad spots of the week include Texas A&M -31.5 vs. Utah State, with a trip to Notre Dame next week; LSU -37.5 vs. Louisiana Tech, with Florida up next week and coming off the big win at Clemson last week; Tennessee vs. ETSU with Georgia up next week.
These three games could be “go through the motions” games, with a lot of backups playing.
Iowa @ No. 16 Iowa State
- Six straight and 14 of the last 16 Cy-Hawk games have gone Under the total. That includes the last three years, when the totals were 36.5, 35 and 39 points.
- Only once in the last 10 years have both teams reached 20 points. Seven of the last 13 games have been decided by a field goal or less, and nine of the 13 have been decided by seven points or fewer.
FIU @ No. 2 Penn State
- Penn State is the first team to be favored by greater than 40 points over an FBS opponent in its first two games of the season since Nebraska in 1997.
- In 1997, Nebraska was favored by 43.5 over UCF in the opener and then by 53.5 over Akron in the second game.
- Penn State was a 42.5-point favorite over Nevada last week and a 42-point favorite over FIU Saturday.
No. 15 Michigan @ No. 18 Oklahoma
- This is Michigan’s first road non-conference game since a 24-17 loss at Notre Dame to open the 2018 season.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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