The Blue Jays are on the cusp of greatness. The Dodgers are on the brink of disappointment.
Game 6 of the World Series will decide whether the Blue Jays will celebrate their first title in 32 years. But the Dodgers are trying to live another day, and will lean on their best pitcher of their postseason.
We’re answering the biggest storylines and questions – and making predictions – and how things will shake on Friday night.
Yamamoto vs. Gausman: Which starting pitcher is favored?
Thosar: After pitching back-to-back complete games in the postseason, I don’t see how the answer could be anyone but Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He is without a doubt the exact pitcher the Dodgers need on the mound to have a chance to push the World Series to Game 7. What should trouble the Blue Jays is, the last time Yamamoto got better as he went along. He’s so good at making in-game adjustments that he’s the only Dodgers starter that has thrown off Toronto’s otherwise airtight offensive approach. Rarely do they swing and miss or chase outside the zone, yet Yamamoto racked up eight strikeouts against the Jays.
Still, it was unfortunate that Kevin Gausman’s performance got overshadowed by Yamamoto’s in Game 2. He was excellent until the seventh inning, when he gave up a pair of solo shots to Will Smith and Max Muncy. Until that point, Gausman had retired 17 consecutive batters from the end of the first inning to the beginning of the seventh. I’m still expecting Gausman to be dominant in Game 6, but Yamamoto is just plain better.
Kavner: It has to be Yamamoto, who’s coming off back-to-back complete games in the postseason. No pitcher has done that since Curt Schilling in 2001. Dating back to last year’s World Series, Yamamoto has a 1.54 ERA over his last five playoff starts. Gausman was terrific in Game 2 as well, allowing just one run through his first six innings of work before the Dodgers finally caught up to his fastball, but Yamamoto’s on another level right now. In a rotation full of stars, he has emerged as their top ace this October.
What’s the main thing the Dodgers must do to force a Game 7?
(Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Thosar: The offense not only has to wake up, but make a statement. I’m talking about Shohei Ohtani NLCS Game 4 levels of statement. If he wants to be the only one in the lineup to score the runs again, so be it. But it’s going to take an offensive performance like that to give the Dodgers enough confidence that they still have what it takes to win Game 6, and then 7. They’ve scored just four runs in their last 29 innings. The Blue Jays have outscored the Dodgers 29-18 in the World Series. In five games and 23 at-bats, Mookie Betts has just three hits. But it’s not just on him. The entire Dodgers offense needs to hit better to have a chance at extending the series.
Kavner: If you’re wondering how the Dodgers, with all their talent, won 93 games and not 103 or 113 or 123 games this year, Game 5 was a perfect encapsulation of the issues that have plagued them all season. Their bullpen is problematic. Their defense, particularly in the outfield, can have lapses. And their offense can suddenly go quiet. That last issue is the one they absolutely have to fix.
Yamamoto has demonstrated he can carry a team in any given game, but he could use more than the one or two runs of support the Dodgers’ pitching staff have been given the last two games. The Dodgers have scored just four runs in their last 28 innings. Stunningly, the Blue Jays have scored 36 more runs than the Dodgers this postseason despite playing just one more game. That has to change.
What’s the key for the Blue Jays to finish this tonight in Game 6?
(Photo by Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
Thosar: The Blue Jays can win in six if they make better adjustments at the plate against Yamamoto. Now that they’ve seen him once in the Series, when they were so off-kilter that he forced them to abandon their successful plate discipline, the Jays should have a better idea of what to expect and how to game plan against Yamamoto’s many weapons. The best way to go about it would be what they did last time: have an aggressive approach in the early innings before giving him an opportunity to settle in.
Just like they did in Game 1 against Dodgers ace Blake Snell, they should focus on hiking up his pitch count. In Game 2, the Jays let Yamamoto find a smooth rhythm, leading to his complete game. They’ll have to capitalize with runners on base and be more clutch against him, which, of course, is easier said than done against an intimidatingly deep arsenal like Yamamoto’s.
Kavner: Exactly what they did in Los Angeles: Work the Dodgers starter enough that he doesn’t complete seven innings. Get into the Dodgers’ bullpen, and the Blue Jays have to feel good about their chances. That’s obviously easier said than done against Yamamoto, and they failed to do that the last time he pitched in Toronto, but he did have one start against the Phillies this postseason in which he went just four innings, so he’s not indomitable.
The Blue Jays have their own issues in the bullpen, but there’s really nowhere for Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to comfortably turn in the middle innings once the starter is out, even with all hands on deck. If they can get Yamamoto out after six (or 6.1 or 6.2 innings), they should have a chance to close it out.
Who has been your World Series MVP?
(Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
Thosar: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He has been the impact hitter of the postseason, not just in the World Series. Guerrero’s eight home runs are tied with Ohtani for the most in the playoffs, but his 17 runs scored and 15 RBI lead everyone. While Ohtani has struck out 22 times this October, you can count on one hand how many times Guerrero has whiffed throughout the entire postseason. And he’s not just a powerful presence at the plate. In Game 4, he fired a bullet to third base to cut down the runner, end the inning, and stop the Dodgers’ momentum, helping the Blue Jays tie the Series at 2-2. And when he’s in the dugout, he’s a leader for the team. On and off the field, Guerrero has shown up when it mattered most for Toronto. MVP all the way.
Kavner: Gotta be Guerrero. He has already set the all-time playoff franchise record for home runs (eight), and he has done it this postseason alone. But his extraordinary October goes far beyond the power. The only player who’s ever recorded more hits in a single postseason than Guerrero (27) is Randy Arozarena in 2020 (29). Guerrero will have a chance to set the all-time mark back home. He’s hitting .415 with a 1.337 OPS. It’s an all-time great run. Keep an eye on Ernie Clement, too, who’s stunningly not that far behind with 25 hits, but the answer’s Vlad.
On the Dodgers’ side, if Yamamoto throws another complete game, if Freddie Freeman hits another game-winning homer or if Shohei Ohtani has another record-setting performance, they could all be in the mix if they come back to win.
Prediction! Will we see a Game 7?
Kavner: Yes. Even if the Dodgers’ offense doesn’t break out of its funk — and, boy, it’s a real problem right now — Yamamoto has shown he doesn’t need much support to come out on top. He tends to rise to the occasion, especially in the biggest spots, and there’s none bigger than this.
Thosar: Yes. I think Yamamoto is on a generational run right now, and the Blue Jays weren’t even close to ambushing him in Game 2. Though they can be ready with a game plan, his mental toughness seems like it will be too difficult to beat. It sure looks like we’re headed toward the four best words in baseball: World Series Game 7.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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