Ben Verlander
FOX Sports MLB Analyst
Look at a photo of Yoshinobu Yamamoto next to his World Baseball Classic teammates Shohei Ohtani and Yu Darvish, and you’ll notice that the only thing big about him is the 10-year, $325 million deal he signed last month to join Ohtani on the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The 25-year-old has already compiled some incredible numbers and accolades during his time in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. There’s the 1.82 ERA and 922 strikeouts in 897 innings. There are the three straight Sawamura Awards (the NPB equivalent of the Cy Young), pitching triple crowns and MVP awards. Those accomplishments don’t guarantee MLB success. Which is why it’s good to examine his raw talent — and it couldn’t be more impressive.
Yamamoto is listed at 5-foot-10, 176 pounds. Pedro Martinez is a lofty comparison for someone who has yet to throw a pitch in the majors, but the 5-foot-11 Hall of Famer might offer some clues for how Yamamoto will perform at this level. Like Pedro at his peak, Yamamoto’s fastball is going to sit in the 95-99 mph range with really good movement and rising ability. That type of fastball succeeds at all levels of baseball.
Then there is Yamamoto’s unbelievable curveball. Here’s another comparison, and one that Dodgers fans will love: His curveball reminds me of a right-handed Clayton Kershaw. It’s one of the prettiest curveballs you’ll see. Just as Kershaw has for years, Yamamoto relies heavily on a looping curve, as demonstrated in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Also like Kershaw, Yamamoto is unstoppable when that pitch is working.
Yamamoto, like many Japanese pitchers who’ve been successful in MLB, has a nasty splitter. It reminds me a bit of those from Ohtani, Kodai Senga and Hideo Nomo. You’ll be hard-pressed to find a pitcher throwing a better splitter right now than Yamamoto’s.
The diminutive right-hander also has a slider and a cutter, but the Dodgers might have him pare down on those pitches and emphasize what he’s best at. They’re obviously counting on him to be special. Sure, they understandably went all-out to sign Ohtani, and they got him. But the biggest hole on last year’s roster was starting pitching. With Ohtani not taking the mound in 2024 as he recovers from UCL surgery, Yamamoto will be the Dodgers’ ace.
One reason L.A.’s rotation faltered was the absence of Walker Buehler, who has missed the better part of two seasons after undergoing a second Tommy John surgery. Buehler had been on track to be the Dodgers’ No. 1 starter, but he’s currently an unknown. Therefore, when the club open the 2024 season against the Padres in Korea, and plays its home opener a week later against the Cardinals, I expect Yamamoto to take the mound.
Verlander breaks down pitching repertoire of Yoshinobu Yamamoto
That’s a lot to ask of someone coming over from not only another country, but a different professional league. It’s an aspect that I don’t think enough people talk about. The pitcher’s mound is different in NPB. The baseball itself is different. After Hideo Nomo made the jump from NPB to MLB in 1995, more than a dozen Japanese starting pitchers have transitioned to the majors. And the results have been mixed, though a fair number of them fared well in their debut seasons (here are the 10 best examples).
Most recently, Senga had an excellent first season with the Mets in 2023, finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting and seventh in Cy Young. That likely made it easier to sell both ownership and fans on the ability of someone like Yamamoto, who is notably younger and even more talented. The transition period has never been pronounced, and it might be narrowing. More importantly, the data suggests Yamamoto would succeed in any environment.
It’s for all those reasons that I not only expect Yamamoto to start for the Dodgers on Opening Day, but dominate in doing so.
Ben Verlander is an MLB Analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the “Flippin’ Bats” podcast. Born and raised in Richmond, Virginia, Verlander was an All-American at Old Dominion University before he joined his brother, Justin, in Detroit as a 14th-round pick of the Tigers in 2013. He spent five years in the Tigers organization. Follow him on Twitter @BenVerlander.
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