[DELHI] Two weeks after a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir on Apr 22, India announced that it had conducted “precise and restrained” strikes on what it called “terrorist camps” in neighbouring Pakistan. Pakistan said it had shot down five Indian planes in retaliation.
The clash will come as little surprise to anyone familiar with the history of India’s relations with Pakistan since their violent and bloody partition into two nations following independence from Britain in 1947.
They have been at loggerheads ever since, with tensions occasionally boiling up into armed conflict. The main focus of the rivalry is Kashmir, an area of the Himalayas that both India and Pakistan claim in its entirety while governing separate parts.
Why do India and Pakistan distrust each other?
At independence, the countries were split along religious lines, with Pakistan becoming predominantly Muslim and India choosing secular democracy for its mostly Hindu population. The drawing of new borders by the British uprooted almost 14 million people and resulted in sectarian violence that killed as many as one million.
The two countries have fought wars since then, two of them over Kashmir, with scores of skirmishes in between. Pakistan’s leaders have seen India as an existential threat since the partition; some think India still harbours hopes of reversing the split.
Indian intelligence services have linked a succession of terrorist attacks carried out between 2001 and 2019 to Pakistan. Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan vowed to curb militant groups, but failed. The country’s civilian leaders have little power to shape foreign and security policy, which is largely the preserve of the army and Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency.
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What’s so special about Kashmir?
At the time of partition, India and Pakistan courted the subcontinent’s various kingdoms (which were only indirectly ruled by the British) to join their fledgling nations.
The Hindu ruler of Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir, a region roughly the size of the UK and with a population of some 12 million today, dithered. Pakistan sponsored an invasion by irregular fighters, India intervened and the two countries fought to a stalemate.
Today, they face off along a 740-kilometre de facto boundary known as the Line of Control, one of the world’s most militarised zones. The region also includes two areas that are controlled by China and claimed by India.
New Delhi accuses Islamabad of sponsoring militants active in Kashmir, while Pakistan says India’s government mistreats Kashmir’s Muslims, and has described the militants as freedom fighters. India’s government says they have been trained and funded by Pakistan’s military, and that their leaders continue to live freely in Pakistan.
In 2019, New Delhi moved to tighten its control over Kashmir by revoking constitutional guarantees and flooding the region with more soldiers. In recent years, the area known for its dramatic mountain landscapes and lush valleys has become popular with tourists again.
What changes as a result of the Apr 22 attack?
Within 14 hours of the attack, India had downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan while Pakistan had banned Indian planes from its airspace and halted cross-border trade.
The closure of Pakistan’s airspace is forcing Indian airlines to take hours-long detours for flights heading west, increasing their operating costs.
Pakistan’s suspension of trade with India is expected to have scant impact as commerce was already relatively small: According to data from the Trade Ministry in New Delhi, India imported US$2.88 million worth of products from Pakistan in the 2023 to 2024 financial year, while exports to its neighbour totalled US$1.2 billion. Visitor numbers to Kashmir are likely to fall.
In a more worrying development, India suspended a crucial water-sharing pact, the Indus Waters Treaty, which could have a serious impact on Pakistan in the long term.
What is the Indus Waters Treaty?
The treaty governs the distribution of water from six rivers flowing from the Himalayas that are major sources for irrigating fertile land in both countries and for generating electricity. It took almost a decade to formalise in the 1960s, with the World Bank acting as a mediator. The treaty gives the two nations the use of three rivers each, and provides a detailed map on how either country may or may not use the other’s resources.
After India announced its suspension of the treaty, the water flow fell almost 90 per cent below the usual volume that passes to Pakistan, according to Muhammad Khalid Idrees Rana, spokesperson for Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority. Any long-term diversion of the waters could devastate agriculture in northern Pakistan.
New Delhi’s ability to redirect the water is limited for now as it lacks the required infrastructure.
However, with the treaty suspended, India could build small-scale riverside projects that would otherwise require Pakistan’s approval. To more seriously disrupt water flows to Pakistan, India would need to spend billions of US dollars to boost its storage capacity.
Pakistan has said the treaty is binding and it would respond with “full force” to violations. In the event of a dispute or breach of the treaty, both countries can request outside mediators, a “neutral expert” or appeal to a court of arbitration.
So could India and Pakistan really go to war again?
A full-scale war on multiple fronts would break with decades of precedent. Both countries’ governments are aware of the dangers of escalation, and world powers have in the past convinced them to back away from hostilities, aware of the risk that either side might reach for its nuclear missiles.
Thousands were killed in the wars of 1947 and 1965, while conflicts since then have been more contained. Fighting in Kashmir’s Kargil region in 1999 ended after less than three months following intense pressure on Pakistan by the US and a threat to withdraw International Monetary Fund loans to Islamabad.
Flare-ups in recent years have been even more short-lived. In 2019, India launched air strikes within Pakistan’s borders for the first time in decades and, even after an aerial dogfight, both countries de-escalated tensions swiftly.
What are the prospects of a reconciliation between India and Pakistan?
A more substantial rapprochement appears unlikely. India’s stance on Pakistan has become more intransigent under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist, and India has said it will start peace talks only if Pakistan cracks down on militant groups within its borders that threaten India’s security.
Even if Pakistan’s civilian government wanted to bury hostilities, it would first need to win over a military establishment that’s consistently spurned any such move. Pakistan’s military has in the past suggested that it would be open to allowing transit through the north of the country to India from Afghanistan and Central Asia, but withdrew the idea after Modi removed Kashmir’s constitutional guarantees in 2019.
Since then, Pakistan has said any peace talks can only happen after that decision is reversed.
The strategic standoff between the US and China may also have reduced the impetus to improve ties. In the past few years, India has moved closer to the US, while Pakistan – historically a partner for Washington on security matters – has shifted towards Beijing’s orbit as China invested billions of US dollars in the country’s infrastructure under its Belt and Road initiative. BLOOMBERG
