George Springer seized a spot in Toronto Blue Jays history when he hit a three-run homer in the seventh inning that sent his team to a 4-3 win over the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the AL Championship series.
Springer’s drive to left field Monday night didn’t have quite the same impact as Joe Carter’s homer that gave Toronto the World Series in 1993, or even Dave Winfield’s extra-inning double that helped the Blue Jays edge Atlanta for the 1992 title. But for a hit that occurred outside the World Series, Springer’s was awfully impactful.
A stat called championship win probability added (cWPA) — published by Baseball Reference — measures how much a particular play increased or decreased a team’s chance of winning that year’s World Series. That’s based on when it occurred in the game — and when that game occurred in the overall context of the season.
Springer’s homer increased Toronto’s chance of winning the World Series by 19.73%. It ranks as one of the 10 biggest non-World Series plays since 1903. Here’s the full list:
10. Chris Chambliss, New York Yankees (1976)
Chris Chambliss’ solo homer in the bottom of the ninth to give the New York Yankees a 7-6 win over Kansas City in Game 5 of the 1976 ALCS. (cWPA of 18.77%)
The LCS was best-of-five before 1985, so this homer by Chambliss was a walk-off in a winner-take-all game. It also touched off a complete mob scene as fans invaded the field at Yankee Stadium. Baseball Reference’s cWPA data has Chambliss’ drive just ahead of a similar homer by Aaron Boone of the Yankees in Game 7 of the ALCS 27 years later.
9. Cecil Cooper, Milwaukee Brewers (1982)
Cecil Cooper’s two-run single in the seventh that put the Milwaukee Brewers up 4-3 against the California Angels in Game 5 of the 1982 ALCS. (19.66%)
That 4-3 lead held up to give Milwaukee the pennant in a series California led 2-0 at one point. The Angels also blew a 3-1 lead in the 1986 ALCS.
8. George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays (2015)
(Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
Springer’s three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh that gave Toronto a 4-3 lead over Seattle in Game 7 of the 2025 ALCS. (19.73%)
Like Cooper’s hit, Springer’s drive turned a deficit into a lead in the seventh inning of a winner-take-all LCS game. Give Springer extra points for erasing a multirun deficit.
7. Manny Trillo, Philadelphia Phillies (1980)
Manny Trillo’s two-run triple with two outs in the top of the eighth, which gave the Philadelphia Phillies a 7-5 lead against the Houston Astros in Game 5 of the 1980 NLCS. (19.79%)
This two-run lead actually didn’t hold up. Houston tied the game, but the Phillies did eventually win 8-7 in 10. So those two runs were huge.
6. Jack Clark, St. Louis Cardinals (1985)
Jack Clark’s three-run homer with two outs in the top of the ninth that gave the St. Louis Cardinals a 7-5 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 of the 1985 NLCS. (19.83%)
The Dodgers pitched to Clark with first base open and he made them pay. This is the only play on this list that wasn’t in a winner-take-all game, but it sent the Cardinals to the World Series when they were one out from a Game 7.
5. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals (2006)
(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Yadier Molina’s two-run homer in the top of the ninth that gave St. Louis a 3-1 lead over the New York Mets in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. (20.71%)
After a spectacular catch by New York’s Endy Chavez at the wall in left field earlier in the game, Molina sent this ball well past it. The Cardinals held off a New York rally in the bottom of the inning to win the pennant.
4. Rick Monday, Los Angeles Dodgers (1981)
Rick Monday’s solo homer in the top of the ninth that gave the Dodgers a 2-1 lead over the Montreal Expos in Game 5 of the 1981 NLCS. (21.18%)
This homer — hit with two outs — ranks slightly ahead of Molina’s one-out drive. Both provided the game’s final scoring.
3. Johnny Bench, Cincinnati Reds (1972)
(Photo by © Bettmann/CORBIS/Bettmann Archive)
Johnny Bench’s solo homer in the bottom of the ninth for the Cincinnati Reds that tied Game 5 of the 1972 NLCS against Pittsburgh at 3. (22.52%)
The Pirates were three outs from the World Series, but those never came. Bench led off with this opposite-field drive, and Cincinnati would score the pennant-winning run on a wild pitch later that inning.
2. Bobby Thomson, New York Giants (1951)
Bobby Thomson’s three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth that gave the New York Giants a 5-4 win over the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 3 of a tiebreaker series for the National League pennant in 1951. (35.56%)
Thomson’s “Shot Heard ‘Round The World” wasn’t technically a postseason play because tiebreaker playoffs have been considered part of the regular season. Still, this was a winner-take-all game for a World Series berth, and Thomson’s team went from being down two runs to winning in one legendary swing.
1. Francisco Cabrera, Atlanta Braves (1992)
Francisco Cabrera’s two-run single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth that gave the Atlanta Braves a 3-2 win over Pittsburgh in Game 7 of the 1992 NLCS. (36.84%)
Cabrera remains one of baseball’s unlikeliest heroes, having had only 11 plate appearances during the 1992 regular season. He ranks just ahead of Thomson. Although Thomson’s hit erased a bigger deficit, Cabrera’s came with two outs while Thomson’s came with only one.
Reporting by The Associated Press.
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