Timberwolves vs. Thunder odds, predictions: Back Oklahoma City to advance

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Western Conference finals start Tuesday night with a matchup between the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder and the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The Wolves are back in the Western Conference finals after dispatching the Lakers in five games and then defeating the Steph Curry-less Warriors in five games, winning four straight after a Game 1 loss. 

The Thunder easily swept the Grizzlies in Round 1, and it took seven games for Oklahoma City to end the Nuggets’ season. 

Two days later, they are playing Game 1 against Minnesota at home.

With that in mind, there are a few wagers that I think have value right now. Let’s dive into it.

Thunder to win the Western Conference finals in five games
Thunder to win the Western Conference finals in six games

Oklahoma City cruised to the No. 1 seed with the best point differential in league history and the second-best net rating ever, due to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

SGA will win the MVP. The Thunder are the deepest team in the league, with different ways to attack opponents. They can go big or small and have a reliable cast of offensive options. On defense, they can harass opponents with a rotating cast of players depending on the situation. 

OKC is a complete team.

The Timberwolves struggled in the first half of the season, but once they figured out their offense around Anthony Edwards and newly acquired Julius Randle, they took off in the second half. Randle has been outstanding in the first two playoff rounds, averaging nearly 24 points per game. 

The Timberwolves defense ranks second in the postseason for points allowed per 100 possessions and has been a rebounding machine in the first two rounds. However, it’s worth noting that they played two teams with minimal frontcourt presence. It would be an indictment of the Wolves’ talented big men if they did not dominate that area of the court.

The Wolves have a rest advantage heading into the series, but they don’t have a competitive advantage. They played two incomplete teams: the Lakers — missing frontcourt players — and the Warriors without Curry, as well as a potentially lacking Jimmy Butler, who didn’t seem 100 percent. 

Meanwhile, this young Thunder team had a coming-of-age, Game 7 win against the Nuggets, which must feel like a weight lifted off their shoulders. The Nuggets weren’t better, but they’d been there before, and it showed at the end of multiple games in the series.

Is it title or bust for the Oklahoma City Thunder?

The Thunder are heavy favorites to beat Minnesota, which is reasonable considering their talent and depth advantage. Some of the things the Wolves have done well in the postseason — like rebounding and defense — will look far different against the Thunder. 

The Wolves have a turnover issue, giving the ball away on 13.6% of their offensive possessions. OKC forces turnovers better than any playoff team, as we saw in Game 7 against the Nuggets. The Thunder have a rotation of defensive options to throw at Edwards to slow him down, and over the series, this could prove a big difference.

It’s fair to worry about the Thunder’s ability to find a reliable second-scoring option if the Wolves focus on shutting down SGA. Jalen Williams was mostly invisible in the Nuggets series outside of Game 7. Chet Holmgren has had his moments, but the Wolves’ big men will be able to push him around. I do see the Wolves winning some games in this series if the Thunder can’t score consistently. 

This series is going five or six games, with the Thunder advancing to the NBA Finals.

Wagering on the series to go five games at +250 and another to go six games at +265 are two bets I’ve made. If either hits, you’ll make money. Obviously, a sweep or a Game 7 will lose these wagers, but there are ways to get out of these bets. For example, taking the Thunder to win Game 4 if the series is 3-0 could be an option.

PICK: Thunder (+250) to win the Western Conference finals in five games
PICK: Thunder (+265) to win the Western Conference finals in six games

Isaiah Hartenstein to win series leader in total rebounds

The favorite to lead the series in rebounds is Rudy Gobert. He averaged 9.6 rebounds per game in the postseason and that included playing against two teams without a major inside presence. 

The Thunder have two big men to hassle Gobert. I do worry about him getting into foul trouble and also not playing at the end of close games. Hartenstein is averaging over 8.7 rebounds per game in the postseason after averaging 10.7 rebounds per game during the regular season.

I like this number for a guy who’s averaging one less rebound.

PICK: Isaiah Hartenstein (+285) to win series leader in total rebounds

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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