SYDNEY :Asia shares firmed on Monday as signs of progress in a trade standoff between the United States and Canada helped risk sentiment, while the dollar dipped on concerns U.S. jobs data will show enough weakness to justify larger rate cuts.
Canada on Sunday said it had rescinded its digital services tax in a bid to advance trade negotiations, bowing to pressure from President Donald Trump.
The talks are aimed at getting a deal done by July 21, extending Trump’s original July 9 deadline for his “reciprocal” tariffs. Officials have suggested most deals could now be done by the September 1 Labor Day holiday.
Investors were also keeping a wary eye on the progress of a huge U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by Trump’s preferred July 4 deadline.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the nation’s debt, testing foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries.
There was no doubting the demand for the U.S. tech sector and megacap growth stocks including Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon. Nasdaq futures rose another 0.4 per cent, while S&P 500 e-minis added 0.3 per cent.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.2 per cent, while FTSE futures were flat and DAX futures gained 0.3 per cent.
The bullish sentiment spilled over into Japan’s Nikkei which rose 1.6 per cent, while South Korean stocks gained 0.8 per cent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.2 per cent.
Chinese blue chips edged up 0.2 per cent, as surveys showed manufacturing improved slightly in June while service activity picked up.
A holiday on Friday means U.S. payrolls are a day early, with analysts forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June with the jobless rate ticking up to the highest in almost a year at 4.3 per cent.
The resilience of the labour market is a major reason the majority of Federal Reserve members say they can afford to wait on cutting rates until they can gauge the true impact of tariffs on inflation, so a weak report would stoke speculation of a rate cut in July rather than September.
“While initial jobless claims retreated somewhat from their recent high, continuing claims jumped higher yet again,” noted Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan. “Consumers’ assessment of labor market conditions also deteriorated in the latest confidence report.”
“Both of these developments suggest that the unemployment rate in June should tick up to 4.3 per cent, with a significant risk of reaching 4.4 per cent.”
The latter outcome would likely see futures push up the chance of a July easing from the current 18 per cent and price in more than the present 63 basis points of cuts for this year.
DOLLAR DOLDRUMS
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity to repeat his cautious outlook when he joins several other central bank chiefs at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra on Tuesday.
The prospect of an eventual policy easing has helped Treasuries weather worries about the U.S. budget deficit and the huge amount of borrowing it entails.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries were steady at 3.28 per cent, having fallen 9 basis points last week.
The dollar has not fared so well, in part due to concerns tariffs and chaotic policies from the White House will drag on economic growth and erode the country’s claim to exceptionalism.
The euro was near its highest since September 2021 at $1.1727, having climbed 1.7 per cent last week, while sterling stood near a similar peak at $1.3722.
The dollar was down 0.3 per cent on the yen at 144.14, and slipped 0.1 per cent on the Canadian dollar to 1.3665 following the trade news. The dollar index eased to 97.146.
James Reilly, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics, noted the dollar had fallen by more at this stage in the year than in any previous year since the U.S. moved to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973.
“At this point, further weakness could become self-reinforcing as underhedged European/Asian portfolios chase the move,” he added.
“So, we suspect that this could be a pivotal period for the greenback – either it turns around here or there is another 5 per cent or so fall around the corner.”
In commodity markets, the general revival in risk sentiment has undermined gold, which hovered at $3,279 an ounce and further away from April’s record top of $3,500.
Oil prices continued to struggle on concerns about plans for increased output from OPEC+, which contributed to a 12 per cent slide last week.
Brent dropped a further 27 cents to $67.50 a barrel, while U.S. crude eased 43 cents to $65.09 per barrel.
