The more they lose, the bigger the pool becomes.
When top teams fall — like previously undefeated Georgia Tech taking its first loss of the season to NC State — mid-tier contenders across every conference find themselves back in the hunt.
They’re fighting their way back, and under the proposed 24-team College Football Playoff model gaining the most traction around the sport, 43 teams would now have a path to the national championship.
SMU, for instance, might’ve been left out of a 24-team CFP altogether had it lost to Miami. Instead, the Mustangs’ win pulled them within 1.5 games of the fourth automatic qualifier spot in the ACC.
An 8-4 Power 4 team can make the 24-team CFP — and that’s a good thing. Every regular-season game now carries even more weight. While Tennessee might’ve missed the 12-team playoff under last year’s system, the Vols’ 3–3 conference record still keeps them in the mix for a 24-team berth.
This also doesn’t mean teams at the top can cruise to a playoff bid. If Texas A&M, currently 8-0, were to drop its next four games, the Aggies could tumble to fifth in the SEC — suddenly relying on the selection committee for an at-large bid.
No one’s safe. But more teams than ever have a real chance to play their way in.
In August, the Big Ten and others began “populating” the idea of an expanded College Football Playoff of 24 or 28 teams. The 24-team model, which seems to have the most support in private circles, would include:
- Four automatic qualifiers from each of the Power 4 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC)
- Two automatic qualifiers from the Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt and Pac-12)
- Six at-large selections to be made by the College Football Playoff selection committee — the only selections the committee gets to make
Which begs the question: How would the 24-team CFP look if the tournament began today?
In my analysis of a 24-team format, 34 Power 4 programs — including 10 from the SEC, 10 from the Big Ten, seven from the Big 12, seven from the ACC — would still have a path to the postseason. And that’s before factoring in Notre Dame or the Group of 6 contenders.
Heading into Week 11 of the season, teams that have proven themselves in conference play still have just as much opportunity to win it all as No. 1 Ohio State. That’s a huge win for the sport. It creates a more democratic system for determining the best team, with less debate and more certainty.
The scoreboard has more agency.
And fans have the best chance in the sport’s history to see their team play for — and win — a national title.
Here’s how it works:
This 24-team format features 18 automatic qualifiers
I’ve set it up to look like what you’ll read below and stand in to represent the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The top four teams from each of the Power 4 conferences, based on conference standings, automatically qualify for the CFP. The two highest-ranked Group of 6 teams — not necessarily conference champions — also receive automatic bids. The remaining six at-large spots are filled at the selection committee’s discretion.
Teams are seeded by the selection committee
As the personification of the selection committee, I am encouraged to take into account head-to-head matchups, strength of record, coaching, personnel and quality of out-of-conference play when seeding teams.
Winning a conference championship is a strong indicator for a top-seeded team.
Winning a conference title does not automatically qualify a team for a higher seed than a non-conference champion.
The 24-team playoff’s greatest strength is the addition of two rounds of home games
My top 25, which you can read here, is the basis on which these seedings are assigned.
The first two rounds of a 24-team playoff would feature two rounds of home games. The four teams that advance through the opening rounds will play their next game at a New Year’s Six Bowl in a neutral site semifinal.
Teams seeded No. 1 to No. 8 get a bye and a home playoff game. Teams seeded No. 9 to No. 16 each open the tournament with a home playoff game. Teams seeded No. 17 to No. 24 each must play on the road twice to advance to the neutral site quarterfinals.
I need to summarize this, because it’s the best aspect of the 24-team CFP: 16 different campuses host home playoff games.
With that, here is a look at the Week 10 24-team CFP bracket:
FIRST-ROUND BYE, SECOND-ROUND HOME GAME
1. Ohio State (8-0)
The Buckeyes lead the country in scoring defense, holding opponents to 6.9 PPG (only team in FBS to hold opponents to less than 10 PPG). They also lead the country in total defense, holding opponents to 214.8 yards per game.
2. Indiana (9-0)
The Hoosiers lead the country in point differential (+321) and points per game (46.4). They rank third in points per game allowed (10.8), third in big plays (100), and are one of two teams in the FBS with two wins vs. AP top 10 opponents.
3. Texas A&M (8-0)
The Aggies are 8-0 for the first time since 1992, and are tied for the fourth-most sacks in the FBS with 32.
4. Alabama (7-1)
Alabama is the only team in the FBS with 4-plus wins and no losses vs. ranked opponents. Those wins came consecutively and all against SEC teams, making them just the second team ever to record four straight wins vs. ranked SEC opponents (2016 Alabama).
5. Oregon (7-1)
The Ducks are one of three teams in the FBS to average 40 PPG and allow less than 15 PPG (Texas Tech, Indiana).
6. Georgia (7-1)
The Bulldogs have outscored SEC teams by 22 points in the fourth quarter this season, the highest total of any team in the conference.
7. Ole Miss (8-1)
The Rebels’ 33 scrimmage plays of 30-plus yards are tied for the most in the FBS and their 17 scrimmage plays of 40-plus yards are tied for the third-most.
8. BYU (8-0), Previously Ranked: 10
The Cougars rank in the top 20 in the FBS in point differential (+154), points per game (36.3), opponent points per game (17.0), big plays (84), and turnovers forced (16).
FIRST-ROUND HOME GAME
9. Texas Tech (8-1), Previously Ranked: 17
The Red Raiders have a chance to elevate to the elite tier and earn a bye in the first round of the tournament with a win against BYU on Saturday.
10. Texas (7-2, at-large), Previously Ranked: 16
The Longhorns put together their most impressive win since defeating Oklahoma last month with a 34-31 victory to knock Vanderbilt down and move themselves closer to earning a bye week after catching two losses from the first two Power 4 opponents they faced.
11. Oklahoma (7-2, at-large), Previously Ranked: NR
The Sooners enjoyed the most impressive win of the weekend after going into Knoxville, Tennessee, and beating the Vols. Oklahoma has four wins against teams that have been ranked in the AP Top 25 at one point this season.
12. Notre Dame (6-2, at-large), Previously Ranked: 14
The Fighting Irish have won six straight after starting the year 0-2, but the opponents that beat the Fighting Irish are a combined 14-2 through Week 10.
13. Vanderbilt (7-2, at-large), Previously Ranked: 8
The Commodores’ losses are both against Top-25 teams, and one is undefeated in conference play (Alabama).
14. Georgia Tech (8-1), Previously Ranked: 11
While Georgia Tech is still a one-loss team, its 48-36 loss to 5-4 NC State reads as an ugly one.
15. Virginia (8-1), Previously Ranked: 22
The Cavaliers are 8-1 for the first time since 1990, but their only loss is to NC State — just like Georgia Tech.
16. Louisville (7-1), Previously Ranked: 12
The Cardinals’ loss to Virginia is their only blemish on the season.
ON THE ROAD
17. Michigan (7-2), Previously Ranked: 19
at Louisville
The Wolverines just need to keep hanging tough until they get to their annual showdown in The Game with Ohio State.
18. Missouri (6-2, at-large), Previously Ranked: 15
at Virginia
Missouri has a hellish schedule left that could open the door for teams still in the hunt. The Tigers face Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Arkansas to finish this season.
19. Memphis (8-1), Previously Ranked: 18
at Georgia Tech
The Tigers look like the best team in the G6, but they will have to prove it after falling to an otherwise awful UAB squad. However, they’ll have a chance to prove it with games against Tulane on Friday and Navy in Week 13 to retain this spot.
20. Pittsburgh (7-2), Previously Ranked: 24
at Vanderbilt
The Panthers will have to earn the right to stay here with games left against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami to finish this season.
21. Utah (7-2), Previously Ranked: NR
at Notre Dame
The Utes need to continue to win with their losses coming to the two teams in front of them in the standings. That means they don’t own the head-to-head tiebreaker with either BYU or Texas Tech.
22. Washington (6-2, at-large), Previously Ranked: NR
at Oklahoma
The Huskies’ two losses have come against two of the four automatic qualifiers from the Big Ten: Ohio State and Michigan. With upcoming games against Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA, there is a real chance Washington could be 9-2 heading into a regular-season finale matchup against Oregon.
23. North Texas (8-1), Previously Ranked: NR
at Texas
The win against previously unbeaten Navy was a head-turner for a program that feels capable of winning the American Conference title.
24. Cincinnati (7-2), Previously Ranked: 20
at Texas Tech
The Bearcats might need to go undefeated in November to keep their spot in the 24-team CFP.
Above is how the CFP would look if it ended today, but there will be changes and teams not included in the bracket that still have chances to earn entry into the tournament.
Teams on the bubble have taken on losses, but not enough losses for them not to crawl into the top quarter of their conference, and, with 10 or even just nine wins in the regular season, could find themselves into an automatic qualifier spot.
Every game matters. Rivalry games matter more.
No one in Columbus, Ohio, needs to be reminded that the Buckeyes haven’t won “The Game” since 2019, and a win for a Michigan team that has won eight games heading into “The Game” this season could almost certainly mean the Wolverines would be in the CFP.
Texas A&M, which hasn’t won a conference title this century or a national title since 1939, will have to stare down their arch nemesis, Texas, with what could be a spot in the SEC Championship on the line for the Aggies, and a spot in the CFP for the Longhorns.
Good, Old-Fashioned Hate. The rivalry between Georgia Tech and Georgia this year makes it conceivable that a loss to the Yellow Jackets could see the Dawgs left out of the playoff for the first time in three years.
The 24-team CFP takes on the best aspects of the November rivalry: home and away games played on campuses across the country where atmosphere, emotion and pageantry are unmatched.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him @RJ_Young.
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