HOUSTON :Oil prices slipped on Monday as investors weighed easing Middle East risk alongside a possible OPEC+ output increase in August and uncertainty over the global demand outlook.
Brent crude futures edged down by 19 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $67.58 a barrel at 10:01 a.m. EDT (1501 GMT), ahead of the August contract’s expiry later on Monday. The more active September contract was down 34 cents at $66.46. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 62 cents, or 1 per cent, at $64.90 a barrel.
The Brent and WTI benchmarks posted their biggest weekly declines since March 2023 last week but are set for a second consecutive monthly gain of 5.8 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively.
A 12-day war that started with Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13 sent prices above $80 a barrel before sliding back to $67.
“Supply increases and a bearish demand outlook by data reporting agencies will likely start to drive oil markets once again after tensions appear to have cooled between Iran and Israel,” StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Monday.
Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that the group was set to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August after similar increases for May, June and July.
“I believe this potential supply pressure remains under-priced, leaving crude vulnerable to further weakness,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
“[…] soon we will enter the demand shoulder season where OPEC+ increases will become much more visible, and harder to ignore.”
The oil producer group is set to meet again on July 6.
Some market tightness remains despite rising output, however, with lower than expected production increases while exports from OPEC+ countries have remained stable, said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS.
A Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output rose in May, but gains were limited by cuts by countries that had previously exceeded their quotas. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, made smaller increases than allowed.
Kazakhstan, which has persistently exceeded quotas set by OPEC+, may exceed its previous oil production forecast by around 2 per cent this year following an upgrade to output at its largest Caspian oilfields, Reuters calculations, based on data from state-owned energy company KazMunayGaz, showed.
A survey of 40 economists and analysts in June forecast Brent crude will average $67.86 per barrel in 2025, up from May’s $66.98 forecast, while U.S. crude is seen at $64.51, above last month’s $63.35 estimate.
