When the first version of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff bracket was revealed Tuesday night, I wanted to solve the point-spread puzzle.
Rather than map out a team’s path to a national title or fire a hot take on social media about who was slotted where, I wanted to stick to the arithmetic.
So off went text messages to three Las Vegas oddsmakers with a simple question.
“What are the lines?”
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The top four seeds — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Alabama — didn’t factor into this exercise. It was only the eight teams that were projected to play in Round 1:
(12) Memphis @ (5) Georgia
(9) Oregon @ (8) Texas Tech
(11) Virginia @ (6) Ole Miss
(10) Notre Dame @ (7) BYU
Alex White, third-generation oddsmaker and co-host of “Sports By the Book” at the South Point Hotel and Casino was the first to respond.
“I’m not as high on the SEC teams as most people are,” White admitted. “Notre Dame is the tricky one. I think the number should open lower, but the books probably put up Notre Dame -6.5.”
She made Georgia well north of two touchdowns against Memphis and believes the matchup between Texas Tech and Oregon would be a pick ‘em.
Next up, Wynn Resorts bookmaker Motoi Pearson.
The Pride of East Las Vegas was higher on Georgia (-18) and Ole Miss (-15) and agreed with White on the quintessential coin flip between Texas Tech and Oregon.
Pearson’s raw number for Notre Dame-BYU is Irish -6.3.
“BYU is about to get put to the test this Saturday,” he said. “We’ll learn a lot about them against [Texas] Tech.”
Finally, I pinged a former Vegas bookmaker that flipped to the other side of the counter. He mostly bets these days and prefers anonymity, but he’s always down to talk shop and walk me through numbers when asked.
“You don’t want to know how high I’ve got Notre Dame,” he cracked. “Almost 13 points better than BYU on a neutral. I would open -9/-9.5 and try to write the first bet on BYU knowing I’ll get ND money no matter what.
“Who is betting BYU less than +7?”
This gentleman was the highest of the three on Georgia and Ole Miss, as he typically shades his ratings to the higher side when SEC teams play inferior opponents. It’s shaped by years of booking Alabama playoff blowouts.
And with that, we’ve computed average point spreads for projected CFP first-round games from three Las Vegas oddsmakers.
Memphis @ Georgia (-20.5)
Oregon @ Texas Tech (PK)
Virginia @ Ole Miss (-16)
Notre Dame (-7.5) @ BYU
While you debate the bracket, oddsmakers are tinkering with numbers. Georgia and Ole Miss would likely deliver first-round knockouts, Notre Dame is a class above BYU, and Oregon and Texas Tech are numerical equals.
The CFP committee argues résumés; Vegas knows the math.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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