THE television series Occupied imagines a world in which a green-leaning government in Norway stops oil and gas production, leading to a Russian invasion supported by the European Union (EU) to keep the fossil fuels flowing.
But in the real world of Norway’s 2025 parliamentary election campaign, the main opposition leader gave a strikingly different message earlier this year.
“Norway should be the last country in the world to stop production … We want to pump oil for another 100 years,” Sylvi Listhaug, leader of the right-wing populist Progress Party, told newspaper VG.
Norway has at times in recent years seemed almost a reluctant petroleum power. Despite being western Europe’s leading oil and gas producer, Oslo actively tried to undermine its own business model by ploughing heavy state support into electric cars, boats and trucks and other green policies.
But in the three years since Russia’s brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there has been a return to a more unapologetic stance of pumping oil and gas to help wean Europe off its dependence on Russia.
Norway – which had tried out the argument that it was among the “greenest” of oil producers, with lower emissions per barrel than most in its production – now had a new selling point: It is the democratic supplier of choice, especially of gas, of which it is today Europe’s leading provider.
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“What happened around Russian gas and the energy crisis in Europe tells us what happens if democratic countries rely on autocratic countries,” Listhaug told foreign reporters recently.
All this should be good news for the likes of Equinor, Aker BP and Shell, some of the most active companies on the Norwegian continental shelf. They are still both exploring and investing heavily in existing fields in the North and Norwegian Seas.
But some in Norway – both in politics and business – worry that the country may be misreading its customers in Europe and their willingness to buy Norwegian oil and gas in the decades to come.
I was on the Troll gas platform – which alone provides 10 per cent of Europe’s gas consumption – two years ago when Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, thanked Norway for helping it through the winter.
But she was keen to underline both that renewable energy would be the future and that the role of gas would be to help with the “transition”.
An EU official was blunter: “We want all the Norwegian oil and gas we can get now. But we don’t want to give them carte blanche to drill forever. I’m not sure they have realised that.” An attempt by Oslo to get EU recognition for its extensive exploration activities in the Arctic of the Barents Sea was unsuccessful.
Espen Barth Eide, Norway’s foreign minister, argues that the EU will need Norwegian gas in particular for a long time because there is still “a long way down to the level where you need Norwegian supplies, because you want to get rid of the Russian and other non-western sources” of petroleum first.
The future of the oil industry has played a surprisingly small role in the campaign for Monday’s (Sep 8) elections, which remain too close to call between the ruling centre-left and the opposition centre-right.
But there is a decent chance that Norway gets “a much greener parliament than ever before”, as Green MP Rasmus Hansson puts it.
His party has repeatedly called for a stop in exploration, but not production, and could gain more influence in the next parliament if polls are correct. “Something needs to happen with Norwegian oil policy. Our main objective is likely to be to get that process started somehow,” Hansson says.
He argues that the ruling Labour Party and Listhaug’s Progress are “working hard” on ignoring the EU’s ambitious climate plans and could end up “sabotaging” them if the result is more investment in fossil fuels.
Norway’s oil and gas industry itself is doing what it can to slow the gradual expected decline of petroleum production.
Shell recently unveiled technology at the Ormen Lange field – Norway’s second-largest for gas – that can boost recovery from its reservoirs from 75 per cent to 85 per cent, at a cost that will be paid back within the first year of operation.
Oil and gas companies are set to invest a record 275 billion Norwegian krone (S$35.3 billion) this year before the decline starts next year, according to Statistics Norway, as a generous package agreed for the industry during the Covid-19 pandemic has led to high exploration rates.
One of Norway’s leading non-oil business people says: “This has been a phenomenally successful industry for the country. It’s not going to stop by itself. So it’s going to be fascinating to see whether politicians push it or not.” FINANCIAL TIMES
