As we turn the calendar to November, we come off of another weekend with very few NFL upsets.
Chalk prevailed again last Sunday and Thursday, with only the Falcons and Bengals going down as big favorites.
So what’s in store for this weekend, and will we see more ‘dogs barking now that we get deeper into the season?
Let’s take a look at some potential upset candidates, one in college and one in the NFL.
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No. 9 Vanderbilt @ No. 20 Texas
OK, this line is only Texas -2.5, so it’s not like it would be a massive upset. But let’s not lose sight of something: This is Vanderbilt at Texas!
Vandy has been a cash cow in the role of underdog since quarterback Diego Pavia joined the team in 2024. In the seven times the Commodores have been road underdogs since Pavia became the quarterback, they’re 6-1 against the spread (ATS) with four outright wins. The lone loss came against Alabama, which scored a touchdown in the final seconds to cover a game Vanderbilt had led at halftime.
While the Commodores clearly thrive in the role of underdog, in the past couple weeks, they’ve held serve and covered both games they were favored in against ranked opponents LSU and Missouri.
Meanwhile, Texas has been able to keep its playoff hopes on life support, surviving in overtime against both Kentucky and Mississippi State the last two weeks.
Texas could have easily lost both games and now might be without quarterback Arch Manning, who suffered a concussion last Saturday.
I like Vanderbilt to keep doing what it always seems to do and that’s cover the spread.
PICK: Vanderbilt (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Falcons @ Patriots
Life changes quickly in the NFL.
After Week 1, the Patriots were an 0-1 team. They had just got beaten soundly at home by the now lowly Raiders.
Just a couple of weeks ago, the Falcons beat the Bills on Monday Night Football to improve to 3-2.
As we reach the midpoint of the season, the Patriots now seem destined for the playoffs, while the Falcons are in desperate need of a win.
Despite an embarrassing performance last week, I think the Falcons bounce back here.
As good as the Patriots look, it’s fair to point out that five of their six wins have come against the Titans, Browns, Dolphins, Panthers and Saints. Meanwhile, the Falcons are still talented and now find themselves really needing a victory.
A few weeks ago, this line would have been just a couple of points. Now it’s 5.5 and climbing. We haven’t seen many NFL upsets this year, but now might be a good time to back the Falcons at a low point.
PICK: Falcons (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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