Before the season began, Penn State vs. Ohio State was circled on the calendar. In college football Week 10 odds, it would no doubt be the marquee matchup, right?
Even a month ago, with Penn State coming off a respectable overtime loss to Oregon, Saturday’s showdown at the Horseshoe was rightly expected to be massive.
Well, it’s massive all right. As in Ohio State being a massive favorite, thanks to the Nittany Lions’ precipitous fall.
“Penn State’s season is obviously disappointing. And that’s reflected in the spread,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Still, this game remains huge for No. 1 Ohio State, with the first round of College Football Playoff rankings due out Tuesday. Penn State would love nothing more than to have the ultimate get-right game in Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff on FOX.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on Penn State vs. Ohio State and other big matchups, as we dive into this week’s college football betting nuggets.
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College Football Rocks on FOX
Over the summer, some sportsbooks put up Games of the Year odds on select high-profile matchups throughout the season. Of course, Penn State-Ohio State was among them, with the Buckeyes a 4.5-point home favorite.
Now, with Week 10 upon us, Caesars Sports opened Ohio State as a 21-point favorite. That line quickly adjusted on Sunday, but only to Buckeyes -20.5, and that’s where the number stood on Wednesday night.
Ohio State is not only a perfect 7-0 straight up (SU) but a money-making 6-1 against the spread (ATS). On the flip side, Penn State is reeling at 3-4 SU/1-6 ATS, losing four straight and firing coach James Franklin in the process.
Those numbers will have the public betting masses flocking to the Buckeyes for Saturday’s noon ET kick.
“Ohio State is the best team in college football, and action is reflecting that, too. They’re laying the points with Ohio State,” Feazel said. “I do not anticipate Penn State getting a lot of action here.
“But Ohio State doesn’t really run up the score.”
The Buckeyes have scored 37 points or fewer in five of seven games, including last week’s 34-0 shutout at Wisconsin. So perhaps Penn State can at least cover the big number — if it can find a way to score a few points.
Return To Form
Ninth-ranked Vanderbilt (7-1 SU/6-2 ATS) is among the best stories of the season. But as Feazel noted last week, when the Commodores face college football’s blue bloods — Alabama, LSU and the like — the public gets behind the bigger brands.
So Caesars actually needed Vandy against Alabama and LSU. That changed last week against Missouri, with the public finally getting at least slightly enamored with the Commodores.
Vanderbilt escaped with a 17-10 victory when a final-second Mizzou Hail Mary came up a yard short of the end zone.
But with No. 20 Texas on deck this week — albeit a shaky Texas (6-2 SU/2-6 ATS) — Feazel said the pendulum is swinging back.
“Texas’ brand name is a little too much at this point, even with a question mark around Arch Manning’s status,” Feazel said, alluding to the Longhorns QB currently in concussion protocol. “The action we’re seeing is on Texas.
“Vanderbilt is respected by this line and the market but is not being bet accordingly. We need Vanderbilt, and I think that will continue to be the case.”
Kickoff is at noon ET on Saturday.
On Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone hit his last two plays in this space, both in SEC games. That includes taking Vandy -2.5 at home vs. Missouri last week.
So Stone is going back to the SEC well in college football Week 10 odds. No. 18 Oklahoma and No. 14 Tennessee are both 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS, so it’s a battle of teams trying to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
Tennessee is a 3-point home favorite for Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff, and Stone is on the Vols. A key factor for Stone: Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer is seemingly not the same player since returning from right thumb surgery.
“In the three games since returning, Mateer’s passing and rushing numbers have both dipped,” Stone said. “He’s clearly operating at something below 100 percent. On the other hand, Tennessee’s offense is humming with first-year starting quarterback Joey Aguilar at the controls.
“I like the Volunteers to cover the number.”
The Big 12 Late Show
In one of the last games on Saturday’s docket, Cincinnati vs. Utah kicks off at 10:15 p.m. ET. The Bearcats have the higher ranking, at No. 17, but oddsmakers have more belief in the No. 24 Utes.
Caesars opened Utah (6-2 SU and ATS) as a 7-point home favorite when odds first went up Sunday. Since then, there have been signs that Utah QB Devon Dampier — who sat out last week’s 53-7 rout of Colorado — could return from a lower leg injury.
That helped drive the point spread all the way up to Utes -10 by Wednesday afternoon. Both Utah and Cincy (7-1 SU/6-2 ATS) need the win to keep pace with unbeaten BYU in the Big 12.
“That line shows the respect we have for this Utah team,” Feazel said. “But Cincy is definitely a live ‘dog here. People are laying the points with Utah, and there’s a little sprinkle on Cincinnati moneyline to get the upset.
“So we might need that Super Bowl middle: The favorite to win and the underdog to cover.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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