Somehow, we’re already less than one week away from the first College Football Playoff ranking reveal. And as the calendar turns from October to November, the field feels wide open.
Entering Week 10, 29 Power 4 conference teams have two losses or fewer, each still seemingly in contention for the CFP — and that doesn’t even include Notre Dame or the non-Power 4 teams also chasing berths.
FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt offers his third College Football Playoff projection, picking winners from key Power 4 and Group of 6 matchups.
Those predictions left Klatt with having to pick between six two-loss teams for the final three at-large spots in this year’s College Football Playoff. Which teams made the cut, and who does he have winning each power conference?
Here’s a full look at Klatt’s projected CFP field ahead of Week 10.
Conference championship game predictions
Joel Klatt’s projected conference championship matchups 🔥 Joel Klatt Show
Big Ten: Ohio State beats Indiana
Klatt’s thoughts: “I’m going to go with the team that’s the No. 1 team in the country. Ohio State beats Indiana and would be 13-0, while Indiana would be 12-1.”
SEC: Texas A&M beats Alabama
Klatt’s thoughts: “I really like Texas A&M right now. The way they’re playing, the rest of their schedule — they’re going to be favored in the rest of their games. So, I think Texas A&M will be 12-0. … I know Alabama has had a couple of flaws here and there, but let’s say that Alabama runs the table in November. It would be 8-0 in the SEC at that point.”
Big 12: Texas Tech beats BYU
Klatt’s thoughts: “There are a lot of scenarios in the Big 12. I think it’s one of the leagues that could go totally haywire. Let’s just say for the sake of argument, that Texas Tech were able to run the table and beat BYU. So, both Texas Tech and BYU would be 11-1 at the end of the year and each be 7-1 in the conference.
“Texas Tech would be healthier [for the conference championship game]. That would make Texas Tech 12-1 and BYU an 11-2 non-conference champion.”
Behren Morton is set to return at quarterback for Texas Tech as it makes a push for the Big 12 tile and a CFP bid. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
ACC: Miami (Fla.) beats Georgia Tech
Klatt’s thoughts: “Georgia Tech’s undefeated right now. Their toughest remaining game isn’t in the ACC when they take on Georgia. Let’s just say Georgia wins that game and Georgia Tech is 11-1. They’re in the championship game. There are a lot of scenarios where teams could back themselves into playing in the ACC Championship Game, including a wild one with Virginia.
“Based on some of these schedules, though, I think if Miami is able to win out, it would be in the ACC Championship Game.”
Group of 6: USF
Klatt’s thoughts: “The American Athletic Conference’s champion is likely the one that’s in the playoff. It has four teams that are viable: Navy, South Florida, Tulane and Memphis. … A lot is still going to go on here in the Group of 6, but I think that even with the loss to Memphis, South Florida has a good chance to getting to the conference championship game. If it can do that, I think they win that game.”
Seeds
1. Ohio State
Klatt’s thoughts: “If Ohio State were to go 13-0, they would be the No. 1 seed.”
As Klatt said, projecting Ohio State as the No. 1 seed might be the easiest part of this exercise. The Buckeyes have the best defense in the nation in terms of yards and points allowed, while Julian Sayin has emerged as a Heisman candidate at quarterback and Jeremiah Smith remains arguably the best player in college football at wide receiver.
Julian Sayin has emerged as a possible Heisman candidate this season. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
2. Texas A&M
Klatt’s thoughts: “As an undefeated SEC champ, this team could absolutely take over Ohio State. But at this point, Ohio State is at No. 1.”
Texas A&M has been one of the more well-rounded teams, and to Klatt’s point, it might have the strength of schedule argument over Ohio State. It has two ranked wins on the road (Notre Dame, LSU) and could possibly get a third and fourth as it takes on Missouri and Texas in November.
3. Indiana
Klatt’s thoughts: “I think the No. 3 and 4 seeds are going to be the teams that made the Big Ten and SEC Championship Games, but fell short. Résumés are going to be outstanding. The strength of schedules, even though people like to rip on the Big Ten, I think Indiana would have really good marquee wins.”
Indiana might have the strongest win so far this season, with its 30-20 win at No. 3 Oregon earlier in October certainly being a marquee win. While that’s Indiana’s only ranked win to this point, it’s won five of its other seven games by at least 25 points, including a 63-10 win over Illinois.
4. Alabama
Klatt’s thoughts: “The only reason Indiana gets the No. 3 seed over Alabama is because they’re 12-1 and Alabama would be an 11-2 team.”
Alabama has survived the gauntlet of its schedule, beating four straight ranked opponents (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee). It had some difficulty at South Carolina last week, though, and still has home games against Oklahoma and LSU before closing the year at Auburn.
Ty Simpson has arguably been the best quarterback in college football this season, leading Alabama to four straight ranked wins before a close call at South Carolina. (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
5. Miami (Fla.)
Klatt’s thoughts: “We have to place another champ here, and I think that in this model, Miami, at 12-1, as an ACC champ, will get the fifth seed. I think the Big Ten and the SEC are going to get the benefit of the doubt.”
Miami picked up some strong wins to start the year, defeating the likes of Notre Dame and South Florida. The Canes’ wins over Florida and Florida State haven’t aged as well, though, and they lost at home to Louisville recently. Still, Miami has one of the best defenses in the country (11th in yards allowed) and has a formidable offense that has averaged 34 points per game this season.
6. Georgia
Klatt’s thoughts: “Georgia’s going to be an 11-1 team [if it beats Georgia Tech]. Candidly, Nos. 6, 7 and 8 could flip-flop places, so the seeding isn’t going to be super accurate. But if you look at the seeding and schedules, that’s kind of the direction of this.”
Georgia has already picked up ranked wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss this season, but it still has ranked matchups against Texas and Georgia Tech. But the game against the Longhorns is at home, and the matchup against the Yellow Jackets will be held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Klatt projects Georgia wins both games.
7. Texas Tech
Klatt’s thoughts: “Again, 5-7 could be switched up in any way. But these are the teams that I’m really projecting to be in this thing.”
Texas Tech has arguably looked the most dominant of any Big 12 team, but it had a slip up in Week 8 when it lost at Arizona State without starting quarterback Behren Morton. Morton is expected to be ready to play down the stretch, though, with Texas Tech playing BYU in Week 11 as Klatt projects the Red Raiders to play the Cougars again in the Big 12 Championship Game.
8. Ole Miss
Klatt’s thoughts: “I have Ole Miss at 11-1. They would easily be in the playoff.”
Behind newcomer Trinidad Chambliss at quarterback, Ole Miss has already picked up ranked wins over LSU and Oklahoma. Its only loss was at Georgia, and its three remaining SEC games are against teams that have a record of .500 or worse this season (South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi State).
Lane Kiffin has become a popular name on the coaching carousel, thanks to helping Ole Miss get out to a 7-1 start this year. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
9. Tennessee
Klatt’s thoughts: “This is where projecting the field really gets fun. If you play it out, as I did, the SEC, the Big Ten — you’ve got a Virginia thing going on, a Cincinnati thing going on, you might have a Utah or Houston thing going on. I’ve got five power conference teams and Notre Dame with two losses.
“I have a really good feeling [Tennessee] would get in [at 10-2]. They would be coming off an undefeated November, rising up the committee’s rankings every single week.”
Tennessee, currently ranked 14th in the AP Poll, doesn’t have much margin for error, but it has a strong opportunity ahead. It plays an 18th-ranked Oklahoma team at home this weekend as the Sooners have cooled off a bit. Tennessee closes its season hosting ninth-ranked Vanderbilt, with games against New Mexico State and Florida cushioned in between.
10. Oregon
Klatt’s thoughts: “I believe the committee is going to value the Big Ten properly, in particular, that November for Oregon is going to be difficult. Even though I’m assigning Oregon a loss in November, I believe it’s going to be comfortably inside this model, where it’s not going to have to sweat the last spot.”
As Klatt alluded to, he envisions Oregon losing one more game to close the regular season at 10-2. Oregon’s four remaining games are against teams that are at least 5-3 (Iowa, Minnesota, No. 23 USC, Washington), with its games against Iowa and Washington being on the road. Oregon is 1-1 against teams with a winning record so far this season.
11. Notre Dame
Klatt’s thoughts: “I’ve got three teams with two losses and one spot left: Georgia Tech, BYU, Notre Dame. In this scenario, you have to go to the losses. BYU would have lost to Texas Tech twice. Georgia Tech would’ve lost to Georgia. Notre Dame would’ve lost to Miami and Texas A&M.
“Notre Dame would be riding the back of 10 straight wins. The value of that puts Notre Dame in as the 11th seed.”
Notre Dame began the year with a pair of losses to Miami and Texas A&M, but has since looked like one of the best teams in the nation. It’s won five in a row, with each win being by at least 10 points. It has a manageable schedule ahead as well and seems likely to be favored in every game. Notre Dame’s best win to this point is against USC.
Still, in this scenario, Georgia Tech would’ve closed the season with two straight losses and its best win would’ve been against either Clemson or Duke. BYU, meanwhile, would’ve lost to Texas Tech twice in one month in this scenario, but would have wins against Utah and Cincinnati at 11-2.
Indiana & Notre Dame in Klatt’s November CFP bracket projection 👏 Joel Klatt Show
12. USF
Klatt’s thoughts: “I know USF already played at Miami this season, but they’re going to go to Miami in this scenario.”
After getting blown out by Miami in Week 3, USF suffered its second loss of the season when it fell at Memphis, 34-31, after blowing a late 14-point lead. USF has a game against Navy, which is one of the teams ahead of it in the AAC standings. Memphis is currently the only ranked non-power conference team at No. 25, so it seems likely that the Group of 6 team in the playoff field will be the lowest-ranked team in the CFP this season.
First-round matchups:
No. 12 USF @ No. 5 Miami
No. 11 Notre Dame @ No. 6 Georgia
No. 10 Oregon @ No. 7 Texas Tech
No. 9 Tennessee @ No. 8 Ole Miss
Klatt’s projected records for notable teams that missed CFP:
Georgia Tech: 11-2
BYU: 11-2
Utah: 10-2
Vanderbilt: 9-3
Iowa: 9-3
Michigan: 9-3
Texas: 8-4
Oklahoma: 8-4
USC: 8-4
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