For those expecting a trajectory of easing tensions between the United States and China, leading to some kind of a grand bargain between the two, look no further for a reality check than President Donald Trump’s Truth Social posts last week expressing dismay and belligerence over China’s new controls on critical rare earths.
The move on minerals, he said, was “sinister and hostile” before going on to say “I never thought it would come to this”.
From Taipei to Tokyo, Manila and New Delhi – all of whom had built close strategic ties with the US to balance against China – there has been worry in recent months about a Trump-ordered American retrenchment from the region. Trump’s outburst triggered a frisson of excitement among their national security establishments at the thought that the US has reverted to default mode on checking Beijing.
Those sentiments are misplaced.
Trump is just playing for time. Yes, the distrust and the motivations for checking China are still very much alive. But it would be a stretch too far for friends and allies to expect the US to revert to the halcyon pre-Trumpian days of balancing Chinese power.
While we are not at the stage of a “spheres of influence” carve-up yet, it doesn’t require a grand bargain between the US and China to do so. What matters – and should worry allies more – is inexorable drift.
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Trump’s priorities increasingly lie elsewhere, as in protecting America’s near abroad where illegal immigration and the flow of drugs into the US are his main concerns.
On the global front, it is not about ring-fencing China in Asia as speedily cutting American vulnerabilities on critical minerals that go into the components for the most advanced missiles as well as basic consumer electronic goods such as smartphones and laptops.
And even as he fixes that weak spot, Trump’s competitive instincts are driving policies to arrest China’s march to even greater military strength. Hence, the attempts to curb Beijing’s access to the key technologies that are the scaffolding for the modern military edifice; artificial intelligence (AI) tools, critical software and advanced semiconductors being the principal ones.
The latest in that direction was the Dutch government’s unprecedented takeover, under US pressure, of Chinese-owned semiconductor maker Nexperia even though its chips aren’t considered cutting edge.
Suspicion and strategic rivalry
Trump may respect his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. But co-mingled with that is distrust, and possibly even fear.
The apprehension of Beijing’s motives and intentions comes through time and time again. In threatening China recently with a host of measures, including massive new tariffs, Mr Trump speaks of betrayal.
Tellingly, Trump even suggests in his Truth Social post that China may be deliberately out to spoil his big moment as the man who brought peace to West Asia by brokering the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
“I have always felt they were lying in wait, and now, as usual I have been proven right!” he wrote of China.
Subsequently, the US announced an additional 100 per cent tariff on China as well as export controls on “any and all critical software”, all to begin from Nov 1.
As much as Trump would welcome a tremendous welcome in China some day, and a trade deal with President Xi that he can claim to have aced, it is difficult to see the broader strategic rivalry easing.
Indeed, it may be worsening – and key Asian capitals seem to be in weary acceptance of that reality. At a media briefing organised by the Apec Secretariat in Singapore on Oct 15, South Korean Ambassador Hong Jin-wook talked of cooperation on AI and responding to demographic shifts as key deliverables expected from the Apec summit his nation is hosting in October. There was no mention of resilience of supply chains, a major casualty of US-China wrenching tit-for-tat manoeuvres.
Any deal that might emerge out of a potential meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea is at best a temporary blip. Not part of wider strategy, but mere tactics that do not erase the trust deficit.
Weaponised minerals
Beijing knows this too well. It is also fully aware of the power it wields through its grip on critical minerals, dominance underscored by its controlling 70 per cent of global rare earth mining and 90 per cent of refining.
Most immediately, its fresh curbs on exports of 12 of the 17 rare earth elements critical to clean energy, advanced manufacturing, and defence gives Xi extra leverage when he sits down with Trump for talks.
America’s – and indeed, the world’s – vulnerability to China on that front has been starkly evident since 2010 when China used the minerals card in its territorial dispute with Japan. Citing environmental concerns, Beijing limited export quotas, and then halted shipments to Japan for a brief period – panicking its automotive and electronic sectors that depend on China for 90 per cent of their critical minerals.
But the rare earth weapon is not one easily prised from Beijing’s grip. Trump knows it, and is playing for time. Even more than former US presidents Joe Biden or Barack Obama, he is intent on ending this vulnerability.
Early in his first term, Trump signed an executive order to increase US production of these minerals. And in his second term, he has made critical minerals security not just a key component of its energy-focused strategy, but also a foreign policy priority.
Hence the diplomatic outreach to countries like Pakistan and Myanmar, both known to have some reserves of prized minerals.
News reports suggest that the administration is planning to reassign US$2 billion (S$2.59 billion) from the Chips Act to fund critical minerals projects.
But these things take time to develop. The ecosystem that once supported the US rare minerals industry needs to be rebuilt. So, Trump needs to humour Xi in the interim.
That probably explains the soft soap that came after the roar of outrage. And the talk of high respect for his Chinese counterpart, which no doubt makes Xi look good at home.
“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The US wants to help China, not hurt it!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Homeland first
While Trumpian volatility is by now priced in, there are more serious reasons why the Taiwanese, Filipinos and Japanese who cheered at his initial outburst against the Chinese need to temper their expectations of the American president.
They need to do so because Trump’s vision of security is not so much about protecting Asia from Chinese domination as safeguarding the American heartland.
Senior Malaysian trade negotiators say that their American counterparts who negotiated recently with Kuala Lumpur raised no objections to Malaysia’s close trade ties with China – their only concern was that Kuala Lumpur ensures that high technology goods restricted by the Trump administration did not leak to the mainland.
While Trump recognises the inevitability of strong trade ties between China and Asia, it also seems to lead him to think that gives him even less reason to provide key Asian states the American security umbrella under whose protection they have thrived these past decades.
If it is all about “China for prosperity, America for security”, he does not want to be in on that game.
Compared with his first term, this is an incredibly narrow vision, and could even tie in with the talk of a newfound belief in a vague spheres of influence mantra. Trump, it would seem, does not lose sleep over future Chinese overlordship of Asia. His priority is the continental US.
This should thrill Beijing. Indeed, the Chinese seem excited about a draft National Security Strategy document that apparently recently landed on Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s desk.
That paper, according to a Politico scoop, says the Pentagon is prioritising the protection of the American homeland and Western Hemisphere, in a striking reversal from the mandate to treat China as the pacing challenge.
Domestic and regional issues will get priority over countering Beijing and Moscow, according to early versions of the report cited by Politico.
Some would say the shift may be already on. The Pentagon has activated thousands of National Guard troops to support law enforcement in Los Angeles and Washington, and dispatched warships and F-35 fighter planes to the Caribbean to interdict the flow of drugs to the US.
As though confirming that line of thinking, Hegseth recently told Fox News, his old channel, that “the era of sort of reckless adventurism around the globe is over… Ultimately, we’re going to defend the homeland first. That’s most important.”
America’s dominance and comprehensive power will probably endure despite its internal ructions. Some defence arrangements, too; Aukus, the security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the US for transfer of advanced nuclear submarines to Australia, seems to have survived a Pentagon review. Just don’t expect the same readiness from Uncle Sam to attend to the calls in Asia as before. THE STRAITS TIMES
