Wise weekly wagers … what would an NFL bettor want worse?
Alliteration aside, the NFL season is moving forward, meaning bettors across the nation are ready to dole out some cash on a weekly basis.
That’s where I come in.
Each week, I will deliver my favorite bet from each and every game on the NFL schedule.
Welcome to the Week 9 edition of Will’s Wagers.
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RAVENS @ DOLPHINS
Over 50.5 combined points scored
After the controversy over who would start at quarterback last week, we now seem to have some clarity that Lamar Jackson will indeed return for the Ravens on Thursday night. With Jackson back, expect the Ravens to score 30+ against this bottom-tier Dolphins defense. Meanwhile, the Ravens still have plenty of issues defensively themselves. Look for lots of points in this one.
VIKINGS @ LIONS
J.J. McCarthy Under 30.5 pass attempts
The Vikings are another team that gets its quarterback back this week. It will be McCarthy’s third career start. In his first two games, he threw 20 and 21 passes, a clear sign that the Vikings want to lean on the running game as they ease McCarthy in. If they’re going to beat the high-powered Lions, they likely can’t win a shootout. Go under on McCarthy tosses.
FALCONS @ PATRIOTS
Falcons +5.5
In the NFL, nobody is ever as good or bad as they look in a given week. The Falcons at least better hope that belief is true, as they were embarrassed at home last week by the Dolphins. The Patriots appear destined for a return to the playoffs, but five of their six wins have come against the Browns, Titans, Dolphins, Panthers and Saints. I think we get a close one here in a bounce-back effort from the desperate Falcons.
CHARGERS @ TITANS
Chargers -9.5
Why overthink it ? Week after week, the Titans continue to not only lose, but routinely get blown off of the field. Tennessee is 4-21 against the spread since the start of 2024. Let’s hope it goes to 4-22 after this week.
COLTS @ STEELERS
Colts team total Over 26.5
The Colts are No. 1 in the league in explosive plays (a run of 12+ or a pass of 16+), per TruMedia sports. Meanwhile, the Steelers give up the third-most such plays. This is not the Steelers vaunted defense of years past. Look for the high-scoring Colts to continue to light up the scoreboard.
BRONCOS @ TEXANS
First quarter Under 7.5 combined points scored
Two teams here that are better on defense than they are on offense. Both of these teams find themselves in the top five in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed. I think we get a field-position, low-scoring game, especially early on.
PANTHERS @ PACKERS
Packers -2.5 first quarter
The Packers have started with the ball in five of their seven games so far this year, and often choose to take the ball first when winning the coin toss. The Panthers have deferred every time they’ve won the toss. Give me the much better team, and the one that likely to start with the ball, to win the first quarter.
49ERS @ GIANTS
49ers -2.5
Both of these teams can combine to form a respectable roster if you add up all the injured players from each squad. Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart looks to be the future of the Giants, but continues to lose weapons around him, and now faces well-respected 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. The 49ers have plenty of injuries of their own, but are still more talented than the wounded Giants.
BEARS @ BENGALS
Bears team total Over 27.5
Last week, the Jets brought one of the more inept offenses in recent memory into Cincinnati and left with a 39-38 victory. While the Bears have been inconsistent offensively, they still averaged a robust six yards per play last week in their loss to the Ravens. The Bengals can’t stop anyone. Look for the Bears to score plenty.
SAINTS @ RAMS
Saints team total Under 14.5
The Saints will turn to rookie quarterback Tyler Shough on Sunday, who will make his first career start. I expect there to be a learning curve for Shough, and scoring more than two touchdowns will be tough to do against the rested Rams, who are good defensively and off a bye.
JAGUARS @ RAIDERS
Travis Hunter Over 46.5 receiving yards
The last time we saw the Jags in action, Hunter saw 14 targets and had eight catches for 101 yards, both career highs. The team traded a lot to move up to draft Hunter, so his opportunities should continue to come. And perhaps his last game is an indication of his usage going forward.
CHIEFS @ BILLS
Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 rushing yards
The Chiefs getting their weapons back with the recent returns of wide receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy has stretched the field and opened up space for Mahomes to take off and run, an underrated aspect of his game. Mahomes has averaged 42.5 rushing yards over his last four games and gone Over this number in each of the four. Last year, in the AFC title game against the Bills, Mahomes ran for 42 yards and two touchdowns. Look for more of the same Sunday.
SEAHAWKS @ COMMANDERS
Over 3.5 total field goals made
Field goals have been plentiful in Seahawks’ games, as this is an angle that has been kind to us so far this year. While there is certainly some randomness involved, the Seahawks have a good kicker in Jason Myers, an offense that can move the ball consistently, and the fourth-best red-zone defense in the NFL. Myers has made multiple field goals in five of seven games so far this year, as well as a pair of games with three made field goals. Let’s root for kicks!
CARDINALS @ COWBOYS
Over 54.5 combined points scored
At the risk of being overly simplistic, 80, 59, 57, 66, and 68 total points have been tallied the last five times the Cowboys have taken the field. An elite offense combined with a defense that struggles to stop anyone, is a recipe for Overs. It’s hard for the sportsbooks to make the totals high enough.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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