Wise weekly wagers … what would an NFL bettor want worse?
Alliteration aside, the NFL season is moving forward, meaning bettors across the nation are ready to dole out some cash on a weekly basis.
That’s where I come in.
Each week, I will deliver my favorite bet from each and every game on the NFL schedule.
Welcome to the Week 8 edition of Will’s Wagers.
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VIKINGS @ CHARGERS
Justin Herbert Over 16.5 rushing yards
Two teams with high expectations coming into the season meet Thursday night. However, both teams have had their hopes curtailed by a rash of early-season injuries. The Chargers’ offensive line is a mess, and in the last four games, Justin Herbert has had to run more to escape the added pressure that comes with playing behind a battered offensive line. Herbert has averaged about 30 rushing yards over his last four games. I expect more of the same Thursday night.
BILLS @ PANTHERS
Rico Dowdle Over 51.5 rushing yards
The Bills are allowing a league-worst 5.8 yards per rush attempt, and now have to stop Rico Dowdle, who in his last three games has run for 206, 183, and 79 yards, respectively. Dowdle now has to split carries with Chuba Hubbard, who is returning from injury, but will still see enough action to go Over here against a shaky Bills run defense.
BROWNS @ PATRIOTS
Drake Maye Over 34.5 longest completion
The young Patriots’ quarterback is an emerging star, and has gone Over this number three straight weeks, with completions of 39, 44 and 53 yards, respectively. The Browns are great against the run, Maye will continue to look to chuck it deep.
GIANTS @ EAGLES
Giants +7.5
A quick rematch, as the Eagles will certainly be ultra-motivated to avenge the 17-point defeat they suffered in Week 6, but I think it’s time we start looking at this Giants team differently than the bottom feeder of past years. The Giants rookie trio of Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo, and Abdul Carter has transformed this team, and in the last month, they have beaten the Chargers and Eagles, and should have beaten the Broncos in Denver. Expect a close one on Sunday despite the revenge factor.
JETS @ BENGALS
Jets +6.5
Betting on the Jets and Giants is not typically how to enjoy a Sunday, but I think this is actually a good spot for the Jets to cover. Last week, I suggested the under on Justin Fields’ passing prop with the expectation that Fields could get benched, and I think that mid-game benching will also lead to Tyrod Taylor starting this week. The Bengals still have a poor defense, and the Jets’ lack of turnover creation is due to even out. I like the Jets to cover and wouldn’t be shocked if they picked up their first win.
DOLPHINS @ FALCONS
Bijan Robinson Over 88.5 rushing yards
Robinson was bottled up last week in a loss to the 49ers, but this week he gets a favorable matchup against the Dolphins who are one of the worst run defenses in the league. Look for a big day for Bijan.
BEARS @ RAVENS
Over 49 Points Scored
The Ravens are allowing a league-worst 32.3 points per game, while the Bears are allowing a league-worst 6.2 yards per play. With Lamar Jackson expected to return, I think we get plenty of points, considering these two shaky defenses.
49ERS @ TEXANS
Texans -1.5
The Texans are likely playing for their season this week, as they sit at 2-4. The 49ers have overcome a cluster of key injuries, but I think they fall short in this one against a team that is still talented and desperate, like the Texans.
BUCCANEERS @ SAINTS
Saints +4.5
I bet against the Saints last week, but I’m going with them here. The Bucs have a long list of injuries to key players on offense, and are going to be on a short week after a very physical game with the Lions on Monday night. The Saints have been feisty at times this year. I think they keep this game close.
COWBOYS @ BRONCOS
Cowboys +3.5
The well-respected metric of DVOA actually has the Cowboys ninth, and the Broncos 14th. Broncos’ quarterback Bo Nix is 2-8 in his young career when his team allows 20-plus points, and against this explosive Cowboys offense, he will likely to have score 20-plus to keep up. The Cowboys elite offense will keep them in this one.
TITANS @ COLTS
Colts Team Total Over 30.5
The Indy offense is starting to prove itself as one of the elite units in the NFL. It scored 41 points in Week 3 against these Titans in Tennessee, and have scored 38, 31 and 40 the last three weeks, respectively. The Titans are now beat-up defensively, and will likely get gashed for a big number once again on Sunday.
PACKERS @ STEELERS
Packers to get the first first down
Plenty of storylines here as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers square off for the first time. Just as interesting to me, however, is what will the Packers do if they win the coin toss? Last week, they deviated from their habit of choosing to start on offense, in a win over the Cardinals. However, the Steelers have deferred in all of their coin toss victories this year, and even if the Packers are 50-50 to choose offense or defense, those are good odds at starting with the ball. Green Bay to score first or first quarter are also good bets.
COMMANDERS @ CHIEFS
Commanders +12.5
I’ve said for a few weeks here that the Chiefs have started to resemble the high-flying Chiefs of yesteryear. However, this is a ton of points. Marcus Mariota will start at quarterback for the Commanders, but he has played serviceable football when called upon this season. Also, the Chiefs have a huge game next week against the Bills that they might be looking ahead to. The Chiefs should win, but take the 12.5.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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