Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Thursday, Sept. 4, 2025.
That date might seem a long way away since many of us are enjoying the warm summer months and burning ample vacation days. Don’t you worry, though. NFL games will light up our television screens very, very soon.
I’m mostly an underdog bettor in the regular season and am almost magnetically attracted to divisional underdogs in Week 1. And there’s just something about a team catching a small number against a public darling.
Here are three NFL dogs to consider for opening week.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
To Sao Paulo we go for this Friday night tilt.
Las Vegas oddsmakers opened this game just shy of a field goal, and it hasn’t budged one bit. There’s clearly built-in respect to open a team +2.5 instead of +3, and it’s a good sign for the Chargers it hasn’t ticked up yet.
Justin Herbert has yet to win a playoff game in two postseason appearances.
You might have heard the stat about Patrick Mahomes being 19-4 as a starting quarterback in the month of September and surely, it’s not ideal to be on the other side of that. But trends were meant to be broken. I will have my money on Jim Harbaugh and the Bolts as a very live ‘dog in Brazil.
If you want to hold out for a +3, so be it.
PICK: Chargers (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Please get the best number in this one.
BetMGM and DraftKings are dealing Atlanta +2.5, while Pinnacle and South Point are at +1.5, CRIS and SuperBook are +1 and Circa has a pick ‘em. I have little sympathy for anybody who bets Falcons PK instead of +2.5.
Seriously.
Michael Penix Jr. will be the full-time starter for the Falcons this year.
All Atlanta hype revolves around second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr., a southpaw with an absolute rifle under center. The Falcons have been accumulating skill players for years, but they thought Kirk Cousins, off an Achilles injury, was the solution in 2024.
Close but no cigar.
The market feels some type of way about the Falcons, as some of the world’s sharpest shops have already been hit. I loved them taking defensive studs Jalon Walker (Georgia) and James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee) in Round 1.
Go grab that +2.5 while you still can.
PICK: Falcons (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) @ Chicago Bears
After gambling on the NFL Thursday, Friday and Sunday, we get one more crack Monday night between Caleb Williams and J.J. McCarthy.
As a native Chicagoan, I need two hands to count the amount of times the Bears won the draft or offseason and expectations were unfairly high all summer. It’s not that I don’t believe in Williams or new head coach Ben Johnson, I want to be patient with a QB learning another new system.
Meanwhile, McCarthy spent his entire rookie season learning Kevin O’Connell’s system after tearing his meniscus last August.
J.J. McCarthy will take over for Sam Darnold under center for the Vikings this season.
He’ll be playing behind an improved offensive line with Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Rondale Moore and T.J. Hockenson at the skill positions. It’s difficult to put a young quarterback in a better spot.
Minnesota’s 53-man roster is one of the best in the league and I think the Vikings go into Soldier Field and leave with a victory.
PICK: Vikings (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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