Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers tips off on Thursday, and I have multiple wagers for this series based on the idea that the Thunder are going to win big.
Their implied odds for winning the series at -750 puts them at above an 80% chance. We’ve seen in NBA history that these big favorites tend to take the title.
So I’m playing this by splitting one unit into several wagers.
Let’s dive into it.
Exact Series Result
The Thunder have the deeper team, and they have more ways to win. They are longer and will dominate the paint. The Pacers defense has played better in the second half of the season, yes. But who is guarding the paint for them against OKC’s twin towers or if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is getting to the rack?
OKC is going to throw multiple bodies at Tyrese Haliburton to disrupt the timing of the Pacers offense. Jalen Williams can be physical with Pascal Siakam, and OKC can rotate in Alex Caruso to spell any of those guys. It’s hard to see a path forward for Indiana in this series. Keep in mind that the Pacers are here after beating an injury-riddled Cleveland team and also after needing a comeback in Game 1 against the Knicks.
That isn’t going to work against Oklahoma City.
PICK: OKC (+250) to win series 4-1
PICK: OKC (+450) to win series 4-2
I did not wager on the Thunder to sweep the Pacers because we’ve seen the Thunder struggle in a game in all three series matchups so far. They were able to overcome that against the Grizzles but not against the Nuggets or Wolves. I expect the Pacers to show some pride in their home games and steal one of those.
So I threw down some on the exact outcome of the series.
PICK: OKC G1/OKC G2/IND G3/OKC GM 4/OKC GM5 (+600) Exact Outcome
PICK: OKC G1/OKC G2/ OKC G3/ IND G4/ OKC GM5 (+650) Exact Outcome
Now, if the series does not unfold according to my exact outcome projections, there are ways to get off these wagers.
If the Pacers win Game 1, the price of the Thunder to win the series will come down, making it reasonable to back them. If the Thunder are up 3-0, and you think they might sweep, you can grab them on the moneyline for Game 4 or look for a live wager on them to win that game.
Chet Holmgren to lead the series in rebounds
This is a series where the Oklahoma City big men are going to dominate on the glass, same as the New York Knicks did.
The Pacers’ top rebounders in the postseason are Siakam at just under six per game, then Haliburton and then other guards. What you notice is that none of the Pacers’ big men are on that list. They do not play close to the basket and are not rebounding forces.
The player who benefits most in this series will be Holmgren.
He will be free to use his length to rebound inside without much resistance. We just need to look back to the Nuggets’ series. Denver has bigs that play on the perimeter and Holmgren cleaned up. He had double-digit rebounds in five of the seven games and averaged 10.8 per game.
There’s just no one better in this series for this price.
PICK: Chet Holmgren (-125) to lead the series in rebounds
Any Tyrese Haliburton Unders
I think this series will be a difficult one for Haliburton.
He’s had some incredible games in the postseason, but he’s also mixed in some stinkers along the way. He had 14 in Game 2 against the Knicks and eight in Game 5. He scored four and 11 in two games against the Cavs.
The Thunder are going to double him as much as possible and force him to get rid of the ball. When he’s not as engaged with the ball, he’s often just standing to the side and not compiling a ton of stats.
I might wait for Game 1 to see if I’m right before actually backing this spot in every game.
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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