Jason McIntyre
Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
After three stunning upsets by road teams to start the conference semifinals, the betting public is off to a horrendous start.
The Indiana-Cleveland series is perhaps the spot they can claw some winnings back.
Let’s start with the Cavs, who registered first-round victories over the Heat by 37 and 55, and, of course, the public loves no-sweat winners, so they loaded up on the Cavs in the series against the Pacers.
And if you didn’t want to listen to me prattle on before the series about how this was a bad matchup for the Cavs, perhaps you’ll listen to this: The Pacers are deeper and healthier, and if you missed the boat on them winning the series, there’s still time!
Injuries are piling up for Cleveland. Darius Garland (toe) missed Game 1, and his replacements — Sam Merrill and Ty Jerome — were putrid. They are terrific rotational players; they aren’t guys you can play this much and watch shoot this much in a conference semifinals series.
It’s unclear if Garland will return for Game 2 or what the future holds for him in the series.
There was more injury news after Game 1 for Cleveland: Evan Mobley, the Defensive Player of the Year, is banged up (ankle). So is De’Andre Hunter (shoulder), the trade deadline acquisition who is the 3-and-D wing Cleveland has long coveted.
The initial Game 2 line was up to Cavs -10 because of the zig-zag theory and the history of big Game 1 home favorites losing and bouncing back. After Mobley, Hunter and Garland were all absent at Cleveland practice on Tuesday, the line cratered to -7.5.
The Pacers were swept in last year’s conference finals, but that experience trumps anything Cavs players have done, except Max Strus, who went to the Finals with the Heat in 2023.
Experience: Pacers.
As terrific as Kenny Atkinson is as a coach, Rick Carlisle is a 65-year-old battle-ax who has lost in the conference finals three times and won a title with the Mavs and Dirk Nowitzki in 2011.
Again, edge Pacers.
The Pacers are deeper. I believe they have the best players in the series, in Tyrese Haliburton and the better defensive wings (Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard).
Just as Boston won’t shoot 15-for-60 on 3s, Indiana won’t shoot 19-for-36 on 3s in every game, or close to it.
Indiana (+168), however, is going to win this series.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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