Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
It is July, and that means, believe it or not, there will be football this month.
The Lions and Chargers square off at the end of the month, in the annual Hall of Fame Game.
Granted, for some, preseason football is the equivalent of cracking a non-alcoholic beer, but if nothing else, it’s an indication that the real thing is just around the corner.
For this week, let’s take a look at the NFC South from a betting perspective.
The Buccaneers have quietly dominated this division for nearly half of a decade now, as they go for their fifth straight division title. Ironically, the last time they didn’t win this division was 2020, the COVID year, when they settled for a wild-card spot.
However, they went on to win the Super Bowl in their own stadium, in Tom Brady’s first season with the team.
The Buccaneers are odds-on -110 favorites to once again win the South. The Falcons are +250 (a $10 bet returns $25), and nearly captured this division in 2024 under rookie quarterback Michael Penix, who was inserted into the starting role late in the season. But a couple of overtime losses to end the season derailed any chance for the Falcons, who narrowly missed the playoffs.
The Saints are +1200 long shots, and rightfully so, as the surprise retirement of quarterback Derek Carr leaves the team in a rebuilding position, with rookie Tyler Shough likely to start the season opener.
None of those three options are worth a bet to me at their respective numbers, which leaves the Carolina Panthers at +400, which I think is the best value of the bunch.
Can Bryce Young finally break through and lead the Panthers to a winning season?
This time last year, most fans thought of Panthers quarterback Bryce Young as an epic bust. Early in the season, Panthers brass seemed to agree, benching Young in favor of veteran Andy Dalton after an ugly 0-2 start.
In the second half of the season, after Young was reinstated as starting quarterback, the Panthers looked like a different team. They scored 44 in Atlanta in the final game of the season, against a Falcons team that still had a chance to win the division. The Panthers also scored 38 points in a win against the Cardinals, and played coin-flip games against the Bucs, Chiefs and Eagles.
In the offseason, the Panthers attempted to beef up what was a porous run defense, highlighted by the addition of former Raiders safety Tre’von Moehrig. On offense, standout wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan was drafted eighth overall, with the hopes of giving the resurgent Young an elite go-to target.
While the division favorite Buccaneers are tasked with a first-place schedule, the Panthers can build on the improvement they showed at the end of 2024 and compete for the top spot in the NFC South.
If Young can sustain the level of play he flashed late last season, coupled with what should be an improved defense, the Panthers can push the Bucs and Falcons, and make this a three-team race, with the Saints being a team bettors can comfortably dismiss.
At +400 odds, look for the sneaky Panthers to end the Bucs’ run of consecutive division titles.
PICK: Panthers (+400) To Win NFC South
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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