Will home quarterbacks rule the day during NFL Week 7?
Well, that depends on who you’re betting on and if you’re taking them to win straight up or to cover the spread.
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Let’s start with Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.
Prescott might have his work cut out for him when Dallas hosts Washington, Sunday on FOX.
And that’s because, according to BetMGM, Prescott is a disappointing 0-3-1 straight up (SU) and 1-3 against the spread (ATS) since 2020 when he’s a home underdog.
Currently, the Cowboys are 2-point ‘dogs to the Commanders.
FOX Sports betting analyst Patrick Everson got the scoop on how fans are wagering on Dak and the underdog Cowboys in his midweek report.
“The Cowboys are one of those teams we see money on, week in and week out,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel told Everson. “It’s been one-way traffic on the home ‘dog so far, and I would expect to see that continue.”
Now, let’s look at Patrick Mahomes, another QB with home-field advantage this Sunday.Â
Mahomes, unlike Prescott, is favored in his Sunday afternoon matchup. As a matter of fact, the Chiefs are heavy 12-point favorites over the Raiders.
Bettors considering backing the Chiefs to win outright might be motivated to lay down some cash on K.C.’s moneyline since Mahomes as a starter is 10-2 SU when he’s a double-digit favorite over a division opponent.Â
For what it’s worth — and it could very well be worth something this weekend — those two losses in that 10-2 stretch were dealt to them by the Raiders.
But what about that huge 12-point spread? Is it worth sprinkling a little on the Chiefs to cover?
Consider this: As a double-digit favorite against division opponents, Mahomes is a mere 4-7-1.
This year, though, the Chiefs have looked dominant in their victories, as “First Things First” co-host Kevin Wildes pointed out.
“You know, I’m a big margin-of-victory guy,” Wildes said. “[The Chiefs’] average margin of victory is 14. You do have three losses still … but the wins have been impressive.”
Denver’s Bo Nix is another QB who’s playing at home this weekend and, like Mahomes, he’s favored in his matchup.Â
Nix came into the league in 2024 after being selected with the No. 12 pick in the draft. During his rookie season, he was a perfect 8-0 against the spread as a favorite.
This season, though, hasn’t been as kind to him, as he’s 1-3 in that spot. And now the Broncos are 7-point favorites over New York in Week 7 — a Giants squad that has seemingly found its footing and a future star in rookie QB Jaxson Dart.
Should bettors expect Nix and Denver to roll in Week 7 despite barely winning in Week 6?
FOX Sports NFL analyst Bucky Brooks believes the Broncos actually have what it takes to perhaps win it all.
“The overseas trip didn’t showcase the Broncos’ best performance, but it provided a glimpse into the grittiness that will make them a tough out down the stretch,” he noted.
“With a physical running game, an effective bootleg and movement-based passing game and disruptive defense, the Broncos have the requisite pieces to assemble a championship puzzle.”
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