Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen put it in simple terms when he discussed where Jonathan Taylor ranks among the NFL’s top running backs.
“He’s the best back in the league right now, there’s no doubt,” Steichen said. “But I think it starts with our guys up front. He’s running hard. He’s running physically and he’s got great vision. He’s balling out right now.”
Statistically, Taylor has been the best running back this season. Taylor leads the league in rushing yards (697) and rushing touchdowns (10). He’s on pace to run for nearly 1,700 yards and 24 rushing touchdowns on the year. The Wisconsin product also leads the league in runs of 10-plus yards (18) and yards after contact (509).
Those are impressive numbers that are worthy of Taylor potentially winning the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year award, although the NFL’s scrimmage yards leader in Christian McCaffrey (908 total yards) and Bijan Robinson might like a word. They’re also impressive enough to help Taylor capture some MVP buzz, proving to be the catalyst for a Colts team that’s 6-1 with an offense that leads the league in scoring.
But those numbers and the statistical pace Taylor is on might not be enough for him to win MVP. The NFL is a passing league, and Taylor will have to crank it up another notch to break through the long list of star-studded quarterbacks who have put up big numbers this season.
Just look at Saquon Barkley last season. The Philadelphia Eagles star posted 2,005 rushing yards, but finished third in the MVP voting behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Part of the issue for Barkley was that he finished with 15 total touchdowns. With the Eagles leaning on the tush push, Barkley lost a lot of scoring opportunities to Jalen Hurts, who finished with 14 rushing touchdowns last season.
Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in scrimmage touchdowns this season (11), recorind three more than any other player to this point.. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
Adrian Peterson is the last non-quarterback to win MVP after rushing for 2,097 yards in 2012. Sean Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson were able to win MVP in back-to-back seasons in 2005 and 2006 as well. Alexander finished with a league-record 28 rushing touchdowns in his MVP year and the Seattle Seahawks posted a 13-3 record on their way to the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance. The following season, Tomlinson usurped that by scoring an NFL record 31 total touchdowns en route to helping the San Diego Chargers go 14-2.
It will take that type of stat line and season for Taylor to break through and win an award that has been traditionally given to the league’s best quarterback. Even after a 132-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Chargers in Week 7, Taylor’s odds only moved to +6000 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
That’s far behind the handful of favorites to win the award at this point. After another blistering week in which the Kansas City Chiefs humbled the Las Vegas Raiders, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite at +125, followed by Josh Allen at +360 and Baker Mayfield at +700. Drake Maye was the biggest mover for a second straight week, jumping from +1800 to +850.
Here are my top five MVP candidates heading into Week 8.
Mahomes made quick work of Pete Carroll’s Raiders in Week 7, throwing for 286 yards and three touchdowns with a 126.6 passer rating. Mahomes and the Chiefs are hitting their stride offensively with the return of the team’s best receiver, Rashee Rice, after he served a six-game suspension.
The Chiefs have won four of their last five games, and other than the Indianapolis Colts, are playing the best football in the league. Since Week 3, Mahomes has completed 68.3% of his passes for 1,355 yards, with 12 touchdowns and one interception for a 110.8 passer rating.
Odds to win MVP: +125
You have to wonder why Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile continued to blitz one of the smartest quarterbacks in the league in L.A.’s graybearded Stafford, who has seen every pressure defensively.
Stafford completed 13 of his 19 pass attempts against the blitz for 97 yards and five touchdowns in his team’s 35-7 victory over the Jaguars, according to Next Gen Stats. Stafford’s five touchdowns against the blitz are tied for the most in a game by a quarterback in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
Stafford is the first player ever to throw five touchdowns in an international game, and he made some incredible throws like this one.
Odds to win MVP: +1000
After leading his team to so many come-from-behind wins in the first half of the season, Mayfield was due for a dud. And he had his worst game of the year in a road loss to the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football, completing 28 of 50 passes for 228 yards, with a touchdown and an interception.
Mayfield gets a chance to rebound against the New Orleans Saints in Week 8. But with Mike Evans suffering a broken clavicle and out for an extended period, along with Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin not available because of injuries, the Bucs could be running out of healthy playmakers on offense.
Odds to win MVP: +700
Maye would like to play against the Tennessee Titans every week. The North Carolina product completed 21 of 23 pass attempts (91.3%!) for 222 yards and two scores. He posted a 135.9 passer rating in New England’s runaway victory over the Titans.
Drake Maye has statistically been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks this season, helping the Patriots get out to a 5-2 start. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
With a 75.2% completion rate, Maye is the second player in NFL history to complete at least 75% of his passes through the first seven games of a season, joining Drew Brees (77.4% in 2018).
Odds to win MVP: +800
5. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (Last week: Unranked)
While Taylor leads the league in rushing, he only has 23 receptions for 185 yards and a score. Daniel Jones certainly has other weapons in the passing game to get the ball to, like Michael Pittman Jr., AleC Pierce, Josh Downs and rookie tight end Tyler Warren.
But giving Taylor a few more touches in the screen game against the Titans this week could help his MVP candidacy.
Odds to win MVP: +6000
Honorable mention: Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Christian McCaffrey
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.
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