Our preseason Major League Baseball rookie power rankings were based primarily on the players we expected to make an immediate impact.
Now, after more than a month of action on the field, the top 10 list looks a lot different.
Kristian Campbell and Jacob Wilson have emerged as the top rookies on the diamond, but the rest of the players on the list below may come as more of a surprise.
Of course, plenty of time remains for some of MLB’s top prospects to either get the call or find their rhythm. For now, though, here are the latest FOX Sports rookie power rankings.
(Note: The rankings below will be updated once a month throughout the season.)
Honorable mentions
It’s not often we’re discussing a 35-year-old rookie, but Sugano is building a strong argument for a spot on this list. His 3.00 ERA is tied for second among rookies who’ve made at least five starts and stands out in the Orioles’ dismal rotation, but the underlying numbers — a 5.11 FIP, 5.45 expected ERA, .297 expected batting average against and an overall inability to miss bats — suggest regression ahead.
Ramírez already has 11 extra-base hits in just 53 at-bats, leading all rookies with a .963 OPS. He has only played in 14 big-league games, which is why he hasn’t quite cracked the top 10 yet, but he’ll find his way on it in short order if he keeps this up.
Gusto, an 11th-round pick in 2019, is emerging as a valuable swingman in Houston. Opponents are hitting just .151 with 15 strikeouts against his four-seamer.
The top 10
10. AJ Smith-Shawver, SP, Atlanta Braves
We’re early enough into the season that eight innings of one-hit ball on Monday, which dropped Smith-Shawver’s ERA down to 3.00, warrants the final spot on the list.
9. Justin Sterner, RP, Athletics
Sterner and Mariners closer Andres Muñoz are the only MLB pitchers who haven’t allowed an earned run in more than 15 innings of work this year. Control can sometimes be an issue for Sterner, but opponents have just seven hits against him in 18.2 innings. He hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year and leads all rookies in Baseball Reference’s version of WAR (1.3), and the underlying numbers support his dominance. Sterner has the lowest expected batting average and expected slugging percentage against of any qualified MLB pitcher.
8. Jake Mangum, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Mangum ranks in the top three in WAR and steals and top 10 in hits and OPS among all rookie position players despite being out since April 24. The 29-year-old is finally getting his first opportunity in the big leagues, and despite going on the injured list with a groin sprain, the 2019 fourth-round pick delivered immediate production. His plus speed, miniscule strikeout rate and above average outfield defense have all stood out quickly, but he’ll probably need to return to the field before next month to maintain a top-10 spot.
7. Ben Casparius, SP/RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
A year after being thrust into postseason duty, Casparius is taking on an unexpected role again early this season, needing to provide bulk innings for another decimated Dodgers rotation. And he is producing. The 2021 fifth-round pick is 4-0 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.99 FIP that is the best mark among all qualified rookie pitchers. He has 28 strikeouts and just five walks in 25.2 innings, putting him in the top five among rookie pitchers in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Righties are slashing just .186/.197/.254 against him.
6. Kameron Misner, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Misner has fallen off over the last couple of weeks, but those types of lulls can be expected for a rookie with some swing-and-miss in his game. He still ranks second in extra-base hits, fourth in slugging percentage and fWAR and fifth in hits among qualified rookie position players, and his strong defense adds to his value when he’s not swinging a hot bat.
5. Luisangel Acuña, 2B, New York Mets
OK, so we had a decent idea that last season’s small sample where he hit three homers in 14 games was not really indicative of the type of offensive profile to expect from Acuña, but he continues to hit for a high average and make an impact on the basepaths. The reigning NL Rookie of the Month is tied for second among qualified rookies in steals and third in batting average. His low strikeout rate gives him a chance to use his wheels.
4. Chad Patrick, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
The reigning International League Pitcher of the Year won the Triple-A Triple Crown last year, but it wasn’t until this year that the 26-year-old made his big-league debut. Patrick worked his way into the Brewers rotation as injuries ravaged the group, and he has helped stabilize the unit with a 3.08 ERA. He leads all rookie pitchers in fWAR and has allowed three runs or fewer in all seven of his starts, most recently delivering a quality start Tuesday against the Astros.
3. Shane Smith, SP, Chicago White Sox
The top pick in the Rule 5 Draft, Smith leads all rookies — both position players and pitchers — in bWAR. His 2.41 ERA and .207 batting average against are both the best marks among all qualified rookie starters. Even though he doesn’t rack up strikeouts, the right-hander’s extensive arsenal gives him the weapons to limit damage against both righties (.632 OPS) and lefties (.532). He has surrendered just one home run all season, has gone at least five innings in six of his seven starts and has not allowed more than three earned runs in an outing this year.
2. Kristian Campbell, 2B, Boston Red Sox
Campbell is earning the eight-year extension he signed early last month and rewarding Boston’s faith after they made him the everyday second baseman from the jump. He leads all qualified rookies in slugging, OPS, doubles and walks. The underlying numbers are encouraging as well. A strikeout rate of over 25% in the early going is somewhat mitigated by a 15% walk rate that’s nearly double the league average. The 22-year-old reigning AL Rookie of the Month was at Georgia Tech just two years ago and is already more than holding his own in the big leagues.
1. Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics
Is it too early to definitively declare that Wilson will be the rookie hit leader this year? He already has 15 more hits than the next closest rookie and also leads all qualified rookies in batting average (.341) and RBI (20). Most amazingly, in over 140 plate appearances, Wilson has just six strikeouts and six walks. The 23-year-old will put the ball in play, and it’s fair to say the 2023 No. 6 overall pick’s contact skills — which helped him hit over .400 in two minor-league seasons — are translating at the highest level.
Also considered: Roki Sasaki (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers), Jackson Jobe (SP, Detroit Tigers), Edgar Quero (C, Chicago White Sox), Chandler Simpson (OF, Tampa Bay Rays), Chase Meidroth (SS, Chicago White Sox), Jasson Dominguez (OF, New York Yankees), Dylan Crews (OF, Washington Nationals), Cam Smith (OF, Houston Astros), Jack Leiter (SP, Texas Rangers), Jack Dreyer (RP, Los Angeles Dodgers), Drake Baldwin (C, Atlanta Braves), Tim Tawa (2B, Arizona Diamondbacks)
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