Just two weeks ago, Philadelphia held the top spot in our power rankings. If you’re a Phillies fan, hopefully you’ve been on vacation since then.
They’ve been free-falling since then, having dropped nine of their last 10 games. They got swept in Pittsburgh over the weekend and, even worse, placed Bryce Harper on the injured list with the same wrist issue that plagued him last season.
Apart from their plunge further down the list, there’s not much of a change at the top of our power rankings, as the top five spots from last week all remain the same.
With All-Star voting now underway, we’ll take a look in this week’s rankings at the potential first-time All-Stars on every team who have a chance to live out their dreams in Atlanta next month.
What a week for the South Siders, who split a series with the Tigers then took a series from the Royals. The White Sox have an argument for a first-time All-Star on the mound (Shane Smith) and in the field (Chase Meidroth), though the former seems like the better bet considering the number of candidates at shortstop.
The Marlins got filleted by what will likely be the worst team in MLB history, so down they go in the rankings. The Orioles might only have one All-Star this year, and that reality will sting even more when Kyle Stowers ends up Miami’s lone rep.
The A’s had dropped nine straight series before ending the skid this weekend, but as rough as it has been lately, there are some real success stories in the lineup. Jacob Wilson remains the odds-on Rookie of the Year favorite and has a strong argument to start the All-Star Game, leading all qualified shortstops in every slash line category (.372/.408/.528). Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom are also in the mix.
It’s very possible that Paul Skenes starts the All-Star Game again and is the Pirates’ only rep, but Oneil Cruz, who leads the majors with 23 steals and also has 12 homers, could join him there as an outfield backup. Cruz’s tremendous tools make him the type of talent worth watching in an All-Star environment.
The O’s were finally on a bit of a roll, gaining some momentum… and then dropped two of three to an A’s team that hadn’t won a series since the first weekend of May. It’s possible Ryan O’Hearn, who leads the Orioles with a 158 wRC+ and is a free agent after this season, backs up Aaron Judge as the designated hitter in the All-Star Game and then is wearing a new uniform soon after. It’s also possible a surge from Jackson Holliday over the next month gets him in, too. Gleyber Torres is the only qualified AL second baseman with a higher OPS than Holliday.
The Nationals have a good chance of getting a first-timer in the field and on the mound. James Wood has the same OPS (.899) as Kyle Tucker and is building an argument that he should start the game, while MacKenzie Gore leads the National League in strikeouts.
At some point, you are what your record says. Since moving to 24-23, the Braves have dropped 14 of 17 — including seven straight — despite the offensive boost from the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. Rookie Drake Baldwin is their best bet for a first-time All-Star, but considering that the aforementioned Rockies need a rep, it might be tough for him.
The roller-coaster ride continues. The Angels won eight straight games then lost seven of eight and are now ascending again, winning series last week against the Red Sox and Mariners. Zach Neto has been their best player, though it’ll be tough to get in as an AL shortstop. It’s possible Logan O’Hoppe’s 14 homers, which rank second among all MLB catchers, make him the more likely Angels rep.
Corbin Carroll should start the All-Star Game and Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo could both make the squad, but all of them have made the team before. It’s hard to see a first-timer emerging here, especially with the way they’ve struggled, but Merrill Kelly (6-2, 3.43 ERA) has been their best pitcher and is all the more important now with Corbin Burnes needing Tommy John surgery. Gabriel Moreno also has an argument behind the dish for his work defensively.
The Rangers still can’t score, but they have the lowest ERA in the American League. A major part of that is Tyler Mahle, who had a 1.64 ERA through his first 12 starts. Even after allowing four runs in 5.1 innings his last time out, he still ranks fifth in ERA among qualified AL starters (2.02).
Last week encapsulated this volatile season in Boston well, as the Red Sox lost a series at home to the Angels then took a series in the Bronx. Rookie Carlos Narvaez, who was traded to the Red Sox from the Yankees before the season, hit the go-ahead homer in Sunday’s deciding win and could be backing up Cal Raleigh in Atlanta in July.
Andrew Abbott had a late start to the year, but his 2.18 ERA is the third-lowest mark in the National League among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 50 innings. In addition, TJ Friedl leads the Reds in fWAR and has the third-highest batting average (.292) and on-base percentage (.381) among qualified NL outfielders.
Kris Bubic has the lowest ERA (1.43) in MLB and should be headed to his first All-Star Game. The Royals have another first-time candidate in Maikel Garcia, who’s hitting .312 with 13 steals and an .862 OPS. His 73 hits trail only Jose Ramirez for the most among AL third basemen, and Alex Bregman’s injury could open the path.
Well, this one’s easy. Cal Raleigh leads the majors in home runs and has been the best hitter in baseball not named Aaron Judge. He’s the top catcher in MLB, and it’s not close. J.P. Crawford is also in the conversation at shortstop, but that’s a crowded field.
There are no first-time locks here, but could Daniel Schneemann build an argument at second base as he logs more plate appearances? The position doesn’t have a ton of contenders, and he has the same OPS as Gleyber Torres (.775 OPS) with two more homers. Or maybe Cade Smith as a non-closing reliever? He ranks first in fWAR and second in strikeouts among AL relievers.
Jhoan Duran is 10-for-11 in save chances with a 4-1 record and 1.19 ERA.
It’s possible Freddy Peralta, who was an All-Star in 2021, ends up their lone rep. But keep an eye on rookie Chad Patrick, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 13 starts this year, and Brice Turang, who leads all MLB second baseman in runs, steals and bWAR.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer are their most likely All-Star reps. Could a utility second baseman make it as a reserve for his defense? Ernie Clement’s 11 outs above average across the infield are tied for third-most in MLB. Addison Barger may have a tougher path at third base, especially since he wasn’t recalled until the middle of April, but he has the fourth-highest OPS among AL players at his position with at least 150 plate appearances.
There are a few potential first-time All-Stars here, including the best hitter and pitcher on the team. Jonathan Aranda is slashing .320/.406/.490 with the highest wRC+ among qualified AL first basemen and should make the team. Drew Rasmussen (2.22 ERA, 0.90 WHIP in 13 starts) is building a nice case, too, for a surging Rays squad. Junior Caminero, who leads all AL third basemen in homers, could make it as a backup, too.
The answer here was all set up to be Jesús Luzardo. He had a 2.15 ERA through his first 11 starts and looked like arguably the best acquisition of any team this offseason…and then he allowed 20 runs over his last two starts, the most ever by a pitcher in fewer than six innings of work. His sudden plunge has been part of the Phillies’ greater overall downturn, as they have followed a stretch in which they won 11 of 12 games by dropping nine of their last 10, including a stunning sweep at the hands of the Pirates. It’s a lot harder to envision them getting a first-time All-Star now.
Brendan Donovan has provided more value than any second baseman in MLB this year. Ketel Marte has been scorching at the plate the last few weeks, to the point that he could still earn the starting job even with a month missed to injury, but Donovan’s place as a first-time All-Star should still be cemented.
Hunter Brown and Jeremy Peña have never been All-Stars, and they’ve been the best pitcher and player, respectively, on the best team in the AL West. Brown has a 1.82 ERA, while Peña has an .853 OPS in a career year at shortstop.
The answer would have been Michael King (2.59 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) had he not gotten injured. It’s possible he returns from his shoulder issue in time to make an All-Star charge, but new addition Nick Pivetta (3.16 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) has been similarly good and a vital piece of the Padres’ rotation.
How close are the Padres and Giants right now? They split their four games last week, and each game was decided by one run. The Giants get the slight edge this week on a five-game win streak after sweeping the Braves. They have the best bullpen in baseball, and the best member of that group is Randy Rodriguez. If you’re asking who that is, please go look at his numbers. It takes a lot for a non-closer to be an All-Star as a reliever, but Rodriguez (0.61 ERA and 0.61 WHIP) is deserving.
Trent Grisham’s blistering pace has slowed — his 1.025 OPS on May 13 is now 200 points lower — but he has the third-highest OPS among all qualified AL outfielders. In a career year offensively, Grisham already has four more homers than he tallied last year and as many as he had in 153 games two years ago. Ben Rice could also factor in, but he has an arduous path ahead with Rafael Devers and Ryan O’Hearn also at DH.
They’ll get plenty of offensive representation, with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith strong bets to start. In addition, Andy Pages — who ranks 17th in fWAR among all MLB position players — is a candidate to make the club as a backup outfielder while Ben Casparius has been their most valuable reliever. But the most likely first-timer on the club is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has the third-lowest ERA (2.20) and second-lowest opponents’ batting average (.186) among qualified NL starters.
No question here. Pete Crow-Armstrong should start the game if he continues at his MVP-caliber pace. He has 17 homers and 21 steals while playing the best center field in the game. Michael Busch’s case would be a lot stronger if he wasn’t in the same league as Freddie Freeman and Pete Alonso, but he has been the best offensive first baseman in the NL behind them.
Sure, Francisco Lindor has been an All-Star before. But he has never been an All-Star as a Met and has never started the All-Star Game, both of which should change this year. The Mets will have plenty of reps, though it’s unlikely there’s a first-timer among the group. Still, David Peterson ranks seventh in ERA among qualified NL starters and Tylor Megill ranks ninth in strikeouts for a Mets rotation that has far exceeded expectations.
The best team in baseball should be well-represented at the All-Star Game. Tarik Skubal will likely earn the start on the mound, Gleyber Torres is a strong candidate to start at second base in his first year in Detroit, and Riley Greene will be in the outfield mix. But there are first-time All-Star candidates here, too, none more obvious than former top overall pick Spencer Torkelson, who leads all AL first basemen in home runs in a bounceback season. Keep an eye, too, on closer Will Vest (5-0, 1.67 ERA, 10 saves) and the versatile Zach McKinstry, who leads their position players in fWAR.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.
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