“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
It wasn’t too ugly last week. You can’t really complain about going .500 — especially when we’ve still got plenty of ball left in the tank.
There are some fun matchups on the slate this weekend.
Check out where I’m putting my cash for college football Week 9.
Last Week: 2–2
Season: 25-16-2
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No. 3 Texas A&M @ No. 20 LSU
In terms of expected points added (EPA), the only top-30 defense that Texas A&M has faced is Auburn. Predictably, that resulted in season lows in points, yards and yards per play. Expect a more stern test for the A&M offense this week at LSU and next when they take on Missouri. A loss here for the Tigers puts 7-5 on the table, as they still have road trips to Alabama and Oklahoma. Win here, and they can enter the off week with the belief they can win out. We’ll see if the LSU defense can contain the Aggies without Whit Weeks. Until the win at Notre Dame, the Aggies had struggled away from home against ranked teams. This game might tell if they have truly turned the corner.
PICK: LSU (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
NC State @ Pitt
Last time we saw NC State, it was down 10-7 in South Bend midway through the third quarter. Ultimately, it was done in by three turnovers and the game got out of hand. This is still a team that has a win over Virginia. While the Panthers have gotten hot against the bottom-feeders of the ACC like Boston College, Florida State and Syracuse, I’d expect CJ Bailey and the Pack to have a shot at pulling the outright win.
PICK: NC State (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
SMU @ Wake Forest
The Deacons are coming off two dominant road wins — one with backup QB Deshawn Purdie. While the Mustangs have won 19 straight regular-season conference games, this feels like a bit of a sandwich spot for SMU. The Mustangs are coming off the win at Clemson last week and host Rhett Lashlee’s former team, Miami, next week. Wake had a win over Georgia Tech stolen from it on a clear offsides call and just might get that home upset here.
PICK: Wake Forest (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
Stanford @ No. 9 Miami
After last week’s turnover-laden loss to Louisville, Miami needs to get right. Enter a Stanford team that has injuries at QB and on the offensive line. Keep in mind, it’s not like the Cardinal have much depth to begin with. The Canes haven’t been the most reliable double-digit favorite lately, but against a team which has already lost by 24 to BYU and SMU and by 28 at Virginia, it seems reasonable that Miami can win by at least 31 in an effort to right the offensive ship.
PICK: Miami (-30) to win by more than 30 points
Auburn @ Arkansas
If it wasn’t for bad luck, Auburn would have no luck at all. Four straight losses, three by single digits and the other an officiating debacle where Auburn led 10-0 and did nothing on offense in the second half. Auburn has hinted at potential offensive changes this week, while Hugh Freeze has been quite public about looking for a vote of confidence from his athletic director. Perfect time to hop on board against a terrible Arkansas defense and one that has found ways to continually lose close games.
PICK: Auburn (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE
Last Week: 1-5, -3.35
Season: 14-24, +4.7
NC State +200
Wake Forest +140
Colorado State +175
Baylor +160
BEAR BYTES
No. 6 Oregon @ Wisconsin
Only two teams in the last 30 years have been shut out in three straight games. That was 2000 Baylor and 2006 Utah State. Wisconsin could join them Saturday.
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State
North Dakota State and South Dakota State have combined to win 12 of the last 14 FCS titles. They meet in Brookings, SD, on Saturday, ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the FCS.
No. 11 BYU @ Iowa State
Each of the last six years, we’ve had a team 7-0 or better as an underdog against a team with at least two losses. Each of the last three years, the 7-0 underdog has won outright, including last year, when 7-0 BYU was a 2-point ‘dog at 3-4 UCF and won 37-24.
No. 22 Texas @ Mississippi State
Texas has failed to cover each of its last five road games when favored by at least seven points.
Temple @ Tulsa
Temple hasn’t had more than four wins in a season since 2019 (eight). The Owls go for a fifth win this week at Tulsa in K.C. Keeler’s first season.
SMU @ Wake Forest
Dating back to its time in the AAC, SMU has won 19 straight regular-season conference games. SMU is a 3.5-point favorite at Wake Forest on Saturday.
Minnesota @ Iowa
In the last 10 years, the favorite has won and covered six times and the underdog has won outright three times. Favorite pushed once, so it’s a case of pick the winner, and you’ll cover against the spread (ATS) nine of 10 times.
Auburn @ Arkansas
The last five, eight of the last nine and 14 of the last 16 meetings between Auburn have been decided by double digits. Nine of the 16 were decided by at least 20 points.
Kansas State @ Kansas
K-State has won 16 straight against Kansas. The last two meetings were decided by two and four points. The last Kansas coach to beat K-State was Mark Mangino in 2008.
No. 25 Michigan @ Michigan State
Michigan has won the last three meetings by a combined score of 102-24. The Wolverines haven’t won four straight over the Spartans since a six-game stretch from 2002-2007. If you’re thinking about MSU pulling the outright upset here, Michigan State has lost 11 straight games as a double-digit ‘dog dating back to a 2022 win over Illinois. Dating back to 2020, the Spartans have lost 16 of 17 games as a double-digit ’dog.
Cal @ Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech has lost five of its last seven games as a favorite and failed to cover six of those seven games.
No. 23 Illinois @ Washington
Illinois is the third ranked team in a Power 4 matchup this season to be a road underdog of greater than a field goal against an unranked team. Virginia won at Louisville in this situation three weeks ago, but these teams had lost 14 straight games prior to that game and have lost 15 of 16 such games, if you include Arizona State’s loss at Utah two weeks ago.
No. 3 Texas A&M @ No. 20 LSU
Texas A&M’s upset win at Notre Dame snapped a 13-game road losing streak against ranked teams.
No. 15 Missouri @ No. 10 Vanderbilt
This will be the first time since 1947 that Vanderbilt plays a game as a top-10 team. All-time, Missouri is 8-81 against top-10 opponents and is 1-18 as an SEC member against top-10 SEC opponents.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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