“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Last week, we survived by the skin of our teeth, and by that I mean we went .500.
Hey, it’s not winning, per se, but it’s not losing.
College football Week 11, here we come.
Last Week: 2–2
Season: 30-20-2
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Wake Forest @ No. 14 Virginia
Virginia continues to win and cover, but this is a dangerous spot. The Hoos are the highest ranked ACC team in the CFP. How will that pressure and target affect them? Wake Forest, off a 42-7 loss, has a solid chance at a big bounce back here.
PICK: Wake Forest (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
No. 23 Washington @ Wisconsin
The Badgers defense hung in there a couple of weeks back. And with questions about Luke Fickell’s job security answered, I can see them doing the same here against a Washington offense which has sputtered in its two Big Ten road games. If Wisconsin can score 14 — and that’s a big if, since they’ve scored four TDs in 63 drives vs. Power 4 opponents — that might just be enough.
PICK: Wisconsin (+11.5) to lose by fewer than 11.5 points or win outright
No. 9 Oregon @ No. 20 Iowa
I just don’t know how Iowa scores here. It’s going to have to be on special teams and a short field, I guess. Bad weather is in the forecast, so I can’t see how the Hawkeyes are even going to attempt throwing the ball much. Iowa hasn’t topped 14 points in any of its last six games vs. top-10 opponents and will be hard-pressed to do that here against an Oregon defense whose starters have allowed more than two TDs in regulation only once this year.
PICK: Iowa team total Under 16.5 points scored
Tulane @ Memphis
Memphis left no doubt against Rice last week, jumping all over the Krispies. I’d think Tulane will play a much better game after a no-show in San Antonio last week. Maybe the Jon Sumrall coaching chatter has affected the Green Wave, but this is still a team that’s beaten Duke and has plenty of talent to win here.
PICK: Tulane (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points or win outright
Auburn @ No. 16 Vanderbilt
Auburn has not allowed more than 24 points in any game this season. It’s 4-5. The Tigers have lost games in which they’ve allowed 10 and 16 points. Hugh Freeze has been fired. So, of course, I’m taking the points in Nashville against Vandy, which likely controls its CFP fate. This is also a Commodore team whose last two SEC wins have been by a TD and were games that easily could have gone the other way.
PICK: Auburn (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE
Last Week: 1-0, +1.5
Season: 16-27, +4.6
Tulane +150
Wake Forest +205
Temple +200
Iowa State +200
Auburn +210
Kansas +165
BEAR BYTES
No. 7 BYU @ No. 8 Texas Tech
Since 1978, there have been just three regular-season games between Power Conference teams that saw a team 8-0 or better enter the game as a double-digit underdog. It happened last year when Indiana lost 38-15 at Ohio State, in 2019 when Baylor lost 34-31 at home vs. Oklahoma, and in 1988 when Arkansas lost 18-16 at Miami.
No. 5 Georgia @ Mississippi State
Under Kirby Smart, Georgia is 26-0 on the road against unranked teams (22-0 at unranked SEC opponents). The Bulldogs have failed to cover five of the last six such games after going 15-5 against the spread (ATS) in the first 20 games.
No. 9 Oregon @ No. 20 Iowa
In seven losses under Dan Lanning at Oregon, the Ducks have allowed 315 yards passing in five of those and opponents have averaged 297.3 passing yards per game, along with 13.8 yards per completion. Iowa hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a game since 2019, and its season-high against a P4 opponent is 192. In its last six games vs. top-10 opponents, Iowa has been outscored 215-34 and hasn’t scored more than 14 points in any of the six losses.
Auburn @ No. 16 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt hasn’t been this big a favorite in an SEC game since 2013, when the Commodores were a 12-point favorite over Kentucky and won 22-6.
No. 2 Indiana @ Penn State
This is the first time since 2014 that Penn State is a double-digit home underdog against someone other than Ohio State. And that was a 34-10 loss to Michigan State.
No. 3 Texas A&M @ No. 22 Missouri
Since joining the SEC, Missouri is 1-19 vs. top-10 SEC opponents (0-8 under Eli Drinkwitz).
No. 23 Washington @ Wisconsin
Against Power 4 teams this season, Wisconsin has scored four TDs on 63 offensive drives.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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