This could finally be the weekend that USC shows it has what it takes to cover on the road.
Week 10 could also be an opportunity for Texas to rise to the occasion and prove to the college football world that the Longhorns are worth the hype.
I have my doubts about both outcomes though.
Here’s how I’m wagering the upcoming slate of college football games.
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No. 23 USC @ Nebraska
Lincoln Riley has been at USC for three-and-a-half seasons. His squad has been a road favorite in 16 games, with 12 of them being outside the state of California.
Riley’s Trojans have failed to cover a single one of those 12 games outside the state.
USC has played three road games in 2025, with two of them as the favorite. The Trojans beat Purdue but didn’t cover. A few weeks later, they lost to Illinois as nearly a touchdown favorite.
SC doesn’t cover these games for a few reasons and the first reason is that the team doesn’t play a brand of football that translates well on the road. The USC offense is first in the country in efficiency but just doesn’t finish drives as well away from home. Competition plays a role, but its run game averages over seven yards a carry at home.
That number drops to 3.5 on the road.
Last season, the Trojans averaged 6.15 yards a carry at home and 4.19 on the road. Their offense is far worse on third down, in pass protection, and their quarterback sees their completion percentage drop 16%.
You get the picture.
USC’s defense has just never been good enough to win against decent offenses when it is not at home. The Trojans haven’t been big enough and they don’t stop the run. They are 115th in rushing success rate. They allow nearly two yards before contact — which is near the bottom of the sport. They can rush the passer, but when they can’t stop the run, they don’t get to rush the passer.
Nebraska’s offense feels hard to pin down. The Cornhuskers have waves of success and failure. However, they do end up scoring points and are far better at home.
They are 35th in points per drive and 37th in yards per drive, so those match up. They do allow sacks but don’t allow a ton of pressures. Quarterback Dylan Raiola must avoid mistakes because USC’s defense does thrive on forcing turnovers. If Nebraska can run the ball well, the Cornhuskers should score.
I just need USC to prove it can cover this game and I will continue to wager against it until it does.
PICK: Nebraska (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points or win outright
Washington State @ Oregon State
I don’t get this number, so either I’m a dummy or no one is paying attention to this game.
The Cougars saw their coaching staff and roster get gutted this season, and they started the year a bit slow because of it. They barely beat Idaho, won at San Diego State and then got throttled by North Texas and Washington. They regrouped to beat Colorado State and then lost close games at Ole Miss and Virginia, where they were leading in the fourth quarter of both contests.
Then, the Cougars came off those back-to-back road games to beat Toledo 28-7 at home.
Over those four matchups, their defense allowed just 14 points per game and against the two worst offenses in that bunch, they allowed just three and seven points.
The Washington State offense has been up and down, but it has played better lately. In the month of October, it scored more points, and rushed and passed for more yards.
I like how WSU is playing.
On the other hand, Oregon State is … not good.
The Beavers are 1-7 after getting their first win against Lafayette two weeks ago. It was the first game after the Beavers fired coach Trent Bray, and they are off a bye playing this Cougars team. The Beavers are 99th in yards per play on offense and 125th on defense.
I don’t think a bye week is going to change their personnel and their quarterback. Their offensive line is near the bottom of the sport in pressure rate, blown block rate and the list goes on. The WSU defensive line creates enough havoc plays to cause issues.
I think this number is wrong. I’ll take the Cougars.
PICK: Washington State (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
No. 9 Vanderbilt @ No. 20 Texas
It’s Week 10 and Texas gets to host its first conference home game against a 7-1 Vanderbilt squad.
This is Vandy’s fourth straight game against a ranked opponent. The Commodores lost at Alabama and then beat LSU and Missouri at home.
Are they prepared for another game of this magnitude?
The Longhorns are not what we assumed they’d be this season but are still 6-2. They lost to Ohio State in Week 1 and at Florida in Week 6. The week after Florida, they beat Oklahoma 23-6, followed by wins at Kentucky and Mississippi State.
Neither of those wins was impressive, but they got it done in the end.
Texas wins with its defense. The Horns are seventh in the country in points per drive, 12th in yards per drive, 21st on third down and 54th in pressure rate. They don’t have much of a weakness and this will be a test for the Vandy offense. The Commodores’ offensive line is filled with a bunch of maulers, and that’s one reason Vanderbilt is better this season.
Quarterback Diego Pavia is one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country. He’s the leading rusher for this offense, which is fun but also not an actual good thing. You need a balanced offense and Vandy relies on Pavia for so much. This Vanderbilt offense scored 14 at Bama, 31 at LSU and only 17 last week vs. Missouri.
I don’t believe Vandy is going to score much at Texas either.
It’s still unclear if Texas is with or without quarterback Arch Manning, as he’s in concussion protocol. The Longhorns will have issues scoring in this game whether he plays or not. Their offensive line continues to have trouble and Texas can’t rush or pass very well.
The Longhorns are 77th in rushing success rate and 111th in passing success rate. The Vanderbilt defense is good enough, and it can get pressure on the quarterback. It also limits explosive plays, which will make it difficult for Texas to score quickly. I like the Under.
PICK: Under 44.5 points scored by both teams combined
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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