Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Winning games in college football can boil down to one simple factor: Do you have a roster that’s far better than your opponent?
Usually, the Xs and Os don’t matter when you’ve got the Jimmys and Joes.
Now, add elite-level coaching and a system that produces both wins and NFL players, and you’ve got a baseline for success.
That is where Penn State sits entering this upcoming season.
Penn State went 11-1 in the 2024 regular season after finishing 10-2 in both 2022 and 2023. The five regular-season losses were all in conference play and against either Ohio State or Michigan.
One hallmark of a James Franklin team is the ability to win the games it should.
The Nittany Lions often win those games by over a touchdown and they are games with no sweat. Penn State returns Drew Allar at quarterback, who’s continuing to improve going into his third season. There are still some question marks there, but with the Penn State ground game, Allar doesn’t need to be a superhero.
The Nittany Lions’ running back duo is the best in the country. Kaytron Allen had 220 carries with 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns last season. Nick Singleton finished with 172 carries for 1,099 yards and 12 touchdowns. These backs come downfield fast and are able to help the offense lean on opposing defenses and break out late for scores.
It’s thunder and thunder.
Kaytron Allen makes up one half of Penn State’s dynamic running back duo.
Penn State did lose tight end Tyler Warren to the NFL, but added three transfer-portal wide receivers. The passing game needs to be more explosive, and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is one of the best in the game. He will have this offense humming all season.
Penn State’s defense has been one of the best in the sport for years now. The Nittany Lions ranked eighth in points allowed last season after finishing third in 2023. They finished with the fifth-most sacks, after leading the country in that number in 2022. They will be replacing Abdul Carter but are returning Dani Dennis-Sutton, who corralled the quarterback 8.5 times last season.
Penn State returns most of the backend of its defense, including third-team All-Big Ten cornerback AJ Harris. Penn State’s biggest addition this offseason was Jim Knowles, the former Ohio State defensive coordinator. Fresh off a championship, he heads to a Big Ten rival to help them do the same.
That’s a legit coaching staff in Happy Valley.
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The decision to wager on the Penn State Over or Under depends on how you feel the Nittany Lions play in just two games this season.
Their non-conference schedule is a joke. Nevada, FIU and Villanova are all home games to start the season. Then, after a bye, they host Oregon in Week 5. Penn State will be under a touchdown favorite in that game but will still be expected to win.
Five weeks later, Penn State plays its toughest game of the season at Ohio State, also off a bye week. If the Nittany Lions continue their trend of winning as a favorite, they will beat Oregon and then lose as an underdog to Ohio State. That would be 11-1 and Over.
If you believe they will lose both games, they are going Under.
I’m in the camp of Penn State being good enough to at least split those games, if not win both of them. I’d play Penn State’s Over and if they have a loss entering Ohio State, you can play the Buckeyes to hedge a bit.
PICK: Penn State Over 10.5 regular-season wins
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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