Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
With college football kicking off in just two months, it’s time to assess how successful — or how unsuccessful — teams will be this upcoming season.
There is one team whose win total stood out to me in particular: the Oregon Ducks.
And based on what we know about this team from last year and its offseason moves, I’m ready to throw down some cash on these Ducks.
Let’s take a look at what I think Oregon’s regular-season win total will be.
Oregon Ducks Over/Under 11 wins
Dan Lanning returns to Eugene for his fourth season as head coach of the Oregon Ducks after three successful years. At 38 years old, this first-time head coach has an overall record of 35-6: 2022: 10-3, 2023: 12-2 and 2024: 13-1. For the sake of a regular-season win total, his record in just 12 regular-season games is 32-4, with three losses coming from his first season.
One characteristic of Lanning’s teams is their play against opponents they should beat. Aside from a loss to Oregon State at the end of the 2022 season, the Ducks have not lost a regular-season game they shouldn’t have. Their three other regular-season losses are to Georgia and twice to Washington.
However, there have been close games. A late comeback against Washington State in 2022, a late pick-six to seal the game at Texas Tech in 2023 and a three-point win against Boise State and Wisconsin were Oregon’s closest wins last season. Otherwise, it’s a bunch of lopsided scores where Oregon was in no danger of losing. This mindset of respecting every opponent is welcome when you’re wagering Over 10.5 wins on a team. They can not be upset. There’s no margin for error.
The Oregon schedule allows for the Ducks to win most of their games. The non-conference slate includes three home games against Montana State, Oklahoma State and Oregon State. Oregon will be multiple-touchdown favorites against all three. While Montana State did play for the FCS championship, I expect the Ducks to be on high alert after their previous season opener against Idaho. Oklahoma State went 0-9 in the Big 12 last season, and the Beavers just don’t have the horses to compete.
In conference play, Oregon hosts Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota and USC. Oregon rarely loses at home, and none of these teams pose a threat right now. Indiana could be feisty with Mendoza and its coaching staff, while USC could be peaking near the end of the season if things break right. Still, these games are at home, where the Ducks usually win.
Oregon will face conference road games at Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, Iowa and Washington. The Penn State game will be difficult, and Oregon may lose that game. In the other four games, Oregon will be a touchdown favorite or more, but playing at Washington to end the season is a rivalry game — one I’m hesitant to mark as a win ahead of time. If the Ducks are 10-1 and you’re afraid to lose the Over wager, then take Washington moneyline.
The Ducks’ winning ways over the last three seasons have included one of the best rosters in the country. They have fielded two straight Heisman finalists and over a dozen players drafted into the NFL. The last draft included their starting quarterback, running back, tight end, best receiver, starting defensive tackles and more. Oregon will be replacing a lot of talent and will need to mesh quickly for success.
Oregon’s quarterback will be Dante Moore, a former five-star recruit who transferred from UCLA last winter. He redshirted last season and has a gifted arm. There were also transfer portal additions at running back, left tackle and left guard. Both of the offensive linemen could see their names called in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. The Ducks defense saw major additions in the defensive back end as well. Oregon has stockpiled talent on the defensive line and at linebacker, and will need those guys to step up this season. I have no doubt the coaching staff — with years of results to back it up — will get these guys playing well early in the season.
For all these reasons, I’m taking Oregon to win 11 games or more. The Penn State game will be tough, and I’m not sure Oregon will win. The margin of error is slim if the Ducks lose, but they have shown no history of losing games that they shouldn’t. It’s a talented roster with a coaching staff who’s getting better each season.
PICK: Oregon Ducks Over 11 wins
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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