Bob Pockrass
FOX Motorsports Insider
With 10 races left in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, 10 drivers should feel like they can breathe easy when it comes to making the playoffs. Two more should feel pretty good.
Kyle Larson, with 3 NASCAR Cup Series wins in 2025, has clinched his playoff spot
The other 24 full-time drivers? They must take a win-and-in approach.
The playoff field of 16 drivers is made up of the regular-season champion plus the 15 drivers based on the number of wins with ties broken by points.
There have never been more than 16 winners in the 26-race regular season, so typically there are a couple of spots available to those highest in points with no wins.
Of the 10 races remaining, three are on street or road courses (Chicago, Sonoma, Watkins Glen), three on tracks between 0.75-to-1 mile (Dover, Iowa, Richmond), two are on drafting tracks (Atlanta, Daytona) and two are on big tracks that race as a hybrid of intermediates and speedways (Pocono, Indianapolis).
So who’s in the field and who should be nervous? Let’s take a look.
Denny Hamlin is locked into the NASCAR postseason
They Won. They’re In
Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell are absolutely locked in with three wins apiece this year.
The only way a driver with one win doesn’t get in is if there are seven new winners in the next 10 races. That’s highly unlikely in a season where there have been 10 winners in 16 races.
Here are the one-win drivers and their points: William Byron (604), Ryan Blaney (466), Ross Chastain (443), Joey Logano (411), Austin Cindric (337), Josh Berry (320) and Shane van Gisbergen (242).
All of those drivers should feel safe.
Good On Points?
Chase Elliott, who currently has a 146-point edge on the current cutoff, and Tyler Reddick (+123) should be in. That’s unless there are five new winners, and they aren’t among those five in the final 10 races.
But for the moment, count them in. That leaves four spots available.
Bubba Wallace hasn’t won yet this year but is above the playoff cut-off line
Good … For Now?
The four other drivers currently above the bubble are Bubba Wallace (+57), Chase Briscoe (+39), Alex Bowman (+22) and Chris Buescher (+19). All four would be no surprise if they won and all four would be no surprise if they slumped and miss the playoffs.
None of these drivers have necessarily been on the verge of consistently winning. Bowman has 110 laps led (of 4,331 this year), Wallace has led 103 laps, Briscoe 92 laps and Buescher 16 laps.
Let’s take a look at each one:
Wallace (+57): Wallace will have the best shot to win at the drafting tracks as well as Pocono and Indianapolis. He has two career victories, one at a drafting track and another at an intermediate. He has three top fives this year.
Briscoe (+39): Briscoe has shown speed with three recent poles. He has two career victories, and his best shots will be Pocono and Indianapolis, as he has run his best on intermediate tracks. Of all these four drivers, he has the most top fives (five) this year. Briscoe made the playoffs last year in dramatic fashion by winning the regular-season finale at Darlington (which is the playoff opener this year).
Bowman (+22): Bowman has the most career wins of any of these drivers with eight, and he has won at a variety of tracks. He won at Chicago last year to make the playoffs. He has three top fives this year.
Buescher (+19): In 2023, Buescher won three of the final five regular-season races, including at two tracks (Richmond and Daytona) that are among the remaining races. The thing is, he has had just two top-five finishes this year.
Slight Chance On Points
These drivers currently behind the cutoff would need everything to fall their way and a strong final 10 races to make it on points. Their best bet is to win. Let’s take a look.
Ryan Preece (-19): Preece has never won a Cup race. But he would be above the cutline if he wasn’t disqualified from Talladega for too many shims on his spoiler. Preece has shown more consistent speed than all the drivers below the cutoff.
Michael McDowell (-43): McDowell has two career Cup wins — one at Daytona and then at the Indianapolis road course. The drafting tracks and road courses remain his best chances.
AJ Allmendinger (-45): Allmendinger has one top five this year (at Charlotte) but his best bet will be at the road courses, where all three of his career Cup wins have come.
Kyle Busch (-50): The driver with 63 Cup wins but riding a 73-race winless streak could be a threat anywhere. His top-10 finishes this year have come on a variety of tracks.
Will Kyle Busch break his winless streak and secure a postseason spot?
Could they win?
Carson Hocevar (-60): Hocevar has had a pair of runner-up finishes this year. His biggest problem is that he has angered too many other drivers. And in the world of give-and-take, he won’t be given anything.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-61): Stenhouse has four career victories but hasn’t led a lap this year. The drafting tracks are likely his only shot to win.
Erik Jones (-62): Jones has three career wins but is riding a 95-race winless streak. The drafting tracks are likely his best chance, although his two top 10s this year have come on intermediate tracks.
John Hunter Nemechek (-72): Nemechek has three top 10s in his last six races. He would need things to fall his way, but he has 24 career wins in Xfinity and trucks. So he shouldn’t be flustered if he gets in the position to win.
Ty Gibbs (-77): Gibbs is still looking for his first career win, as he enters his 104th career start. He appeared to be the only driver who would possibly challenge Shane van Gisbergen last week at Mexico City. His best finishes this year were a third at Michigan and a third at Bristol. This shows that it could be any track where he threatens for his first career win.
Austin Dillon (-89): Dillon, who has five career victories, won at Richmond last year in controversial fashion, but he has always been stronger there. Richmond and the drafting tracks are his best shots.
Daniel Suarez (-99): With three top 10s this year, Suarez’s two career victories have come on a road course (Sonoma) and a drafting track (Atlanta). Both are on the remaining schedule for the regular season.
Brad Keselowski (-140): Keselowski has 36 career win,s and while he hasn’t had the season he wanted, if he is in position to win, he knows how to get to the finish line first. But the facts are that he has just one top five this year.
Long Shots
This group winning would be upset city, as they have yet to show much this season when it comes to challenging for a win:
Zane Smith (-86, two top 10s this year), Todd Gilliland (-87, two top 10s), Justin Haley (-126, one top 10), Ty Dillon (-137, no top 10s this year), Noah Gragson (-142, three top 10s), Cole Custer (-169, one top 10), Riley Herbst (-177, no top 10s): Cody Ware (-272, no top 20s). Among them, Haley and Custer each have one career win.
Prediction
It is hard to say, but beyond the 10 winners already this year … Elliott, Reddick, Wallace, Bowman, Buescher and Gibbs. While other drivers have been more consistent this year, Gibbs has been the strongest lately to show he is close to the win. And he has done it at a variety of tracks. Is this a diss of Briscoe? Maybe, but he hasn’t turned his recent poles into race-winning threats.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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